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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

The use of "Tic-tac-toe" on Forex

Eyb Kofnas is president of an educational Web site for traders forex market - Learn4x.com. I would like to draw your attention to the indicator, which remains a powerful instrument ever since, even when there was no computer for quantitative assessment of price action. This powerful tool is the analysis of the schedule "tic-tac-toe."

To better explain the use of this tool in the FOREX market, we turned to the trader Tom Dorsi, which is very successfully used this tool for trading in the FOREX market. (general idea, see the "Tic-tac-toe once again in vogue in the number 15)

Eyb Kofnas: Forex market is a rapidly growing market with the development of new lines - retailers with direct access - now in fact anyone in the world can trade in this market. The reason why we invited you to talk, due to the fact that the analysis of the schedule "tic-tac-toe" may be a useful analytical tool for trading in the foreign exchange market, and wrote a book on the diagrams tic-tac-toe, and called - "charting crosses -tack-toe, you could tell us about sveem look at the use of this tool in the foreign exchange market.

To get started, let's look at an example of graphics tic-tac-toe for the currency pair USDJPY:

Short position should be open in the first three-yacheechnom broadside with a protective stop-orderom a new peak - 132.58

Tom Dorsi: The trend is still ascending, but the last line "X" is more than 20 cells. In this case, we have opened a short position at the first broadside in the three cells with a stop on a new peak. This figure also signaled the sale and may be open short position in the deployment of an appropriate stop-order and a new peak.

The only problem is that the currency pair is still above trend line, and this, in general, can impede the opening short position. However, traders can sometimes deviate from the general rules and in this case, enter the short side.

Kofnas: Trader would open a short position, but must have been to place a stop order at 132.50?

Dorsi: Yes, which indicated a red arrow.

Kofnas: Now, let's be clear that the overall concept is to go in a short aside when the price is below the trend line, not above it. In the above graph, the market is so extended, that may well be wise to open a short position with a close stop order, but in fact it contradicts the basic rule for opening a short position. Therefore, the construction of trend lines is absolutely necessary.

Dorsi: Absolutely. Trend lines are very useful and necessary. The line on the graph tic-tac-toe should always be at an angle of 45 degrees for the bovine market and one for Bear.

Kofnas: What about the other indicators?

Dorsi: We use the index of the momentum created by us, which is just two sliding averages - one short and one long, and we observe that it moves above and below the long lines. However, this method is short, so I use only the schedule for tick-tack-toe in their trade. I am a position trader and will keep the position until you find that the situation has changed.

Kofnas: What kind of tactics you're using when you add positions?

Dorsi: We will normally begin, for example, with one lot. Then, as we get a further signal of purchase, we have to add lots and raise the stop order until the new sales generated signal. We analyze each transaction. Often have to derail a lot of stop-orders, to finally catch the trend. Unlike the stock market, there are only a few currency pairs, so you need to adhere to the program and continue to probe the market for search transactions.

Kofnas: Let's look at the schedule for the Japanese yen.

Figure 2. The signal at 117.25 purchase

Dorsi: This schedule would be a great deal when he reached base. This would be determined by the movement of 20 cells in one continuous direction. From this level to 20 or more cells down we can go a long way in the first broadside of the three cells in the deployment of stop-order at the new foundation. If the position will be closed to stop the order, the schedule will start to create a first signal from the base of the purchase, and this will be your next logical entry point. Because the schedule is the size of a turn in the three cells to change the column, the turn in three cells will be the first sign that shoppers again have the situation under control.

Kofnas: So, after a great column you can expect at least three cells and enters the fourth? This is the rule?

Dorsi: None. Point of action would have been spread in the three cells. Once the third cell, and has achieved a turn, begins operation. When the input made, immediately put a stop order. Let us go back to the original rule - go a long way only if the price is above trend line.

Kofnas: So, the currency trader will look at the trend lines, support and resistance, and must be capable of a technical discipline that is not normally associated with currency traders?

Dorsi: Yes. Currency traders are usually focused on the fundamental factors. In this case, the action takes place without the technical tools. The method should be logical, well-adjusted and based on the irrefutable law of supply and demand.

Kofnas: Let's look at the schedule for the Swiss franc to the size of a cell 25 points and the value of turn 2 cells.

Figure 3. The first signal is selling at 1.6825. Positions are added at each new breakthrough, where "0" is lower than the previous one.

Dorsi: Magnificent descending trend. The first signal to the sale of permits to enter the trend at 1.6825. Looks so that each subsequent sale of a signal added to one or more lots with the movement of stop-orders down to each subsequent sell signal.

This is an excellent example of how to use the trend of most of the building positions as the market moves in your direction. We could start with a lot, but now we will have four lots of stop order for all four lots at 1.6825.

If the market went down further to a new sell signal, we added a fifth lot and moved the stop-order for the double peak immediately below the level of 1.655. Let us consider that we have seven cells in the first column "0" gives the first signal to sell. Multiplying the size of seven cells in 25-point we obtain the expected reduction of 175 points. Subtract this value from the value of the vertices, which is 1.677, so the decline has already met the goal, but the position is still not closed and operating. Yes, it's a good deal. Now we multiply by two for the bottom side and three for the top.

Kofnas: Let's say we were at this point - 25 cells.

Dorsi: Good. Given that this was the first movement of the reasons we have, as you say, 25 cells. Multiplied by three and get 75, given the size of a cell that gives us the purpose of 1.709.

Now, to slow down or speed up the timetable, we can change the size of the cell. Sometimes we will use a standard cell size and reduce it to our points of stop orders.

Kofnas: Let's say, 25 cell size and magnitude of turn 2.

Dorsi: Good. Now we are turning into two cells, so we have to move to two, so get two, three, six, multiplied by the size of a cell and get the 1,651 goal. Look, that 1.64 is on the line? Schedule of tic-tac-toe is still a very viable approach. Traders trading on the forex market, should consider it more carefully, and if possible add it to your arsenal of technical analysis.

What is "Tic-tac-toe" ?

Forex Magazine
based on www.futuresmag.com

Central banks and interest rates (part 2)

The second part of the article about the central banks and interest rates, a more detailed look at the mechanisms of influence of interest rates in the economic system, tap the interbank market. The central bank of any country in the world has in its arsenal of 3 time-proven tool that can regulate the amount of monetary assets in circulation, the influence on the activity of the total market.

NORMA MANDATORY RESERVATION
This percentage, which must be taken to the accounts of the central bank with deposits received by a commercial bank. When reserving 5% of the norm (for example), the commercial bank must keep in reserve 5 million if the volume of deposits is equal to 100 million

Height regulations backup: most of the money a commercial bank, which came in the form of deposits, the account goes on rezervva. This reduces the possibility of the bank on the money multiplier (Animation - the effect of which is achieved by a continuous transfer of assets from bank to bank, which formally increases the amount of money in circulation), which leads to a decrease akivnosti in the money market. This helps to reduce demand and reduce inflation.

Reduction rules of reservation: mechanism of action completely opposite.
The global currency market, perhaps, is the least powerful tool for the CB, as the rule of reservation - this domestic instrument, and its impact rarely goes beyond the region.

The interest rate on loans CENTRAL BANK
This is the most powerful tool that is available today. In economically developed countries of the Central Bank of the money in commercial banks is quite high. The interest rate on this money means the cost of borrowing. in other words, how many would pay a commercial bank for central bank money. The mechanism of the loan in each country is different, but we are more interested in the interest rate on such loans.

Growth rates: The most popular mechanism of CB in the recent past. The growth rate increases the price of the money that commercial bank wants to take a loan from the Central Bank. The amount of the loan is reduced, thus decreasing the amount of assets in circulation. The decrease of assets in the market leads to a cooling of the money market, and reduces demand, which leads to attenuation of the inflation rate. The situation of rapid growth rates we are seeing in the United States. But growth rates in the States is quite different connotations. need to cover a huge deficit in the trade and balance of payments. In the United States decided to do so through its own bond market (below). Raising interest rates is accounted for by the way in time of rising oil prices.

Reducing interest rates on credit: The mechanism completely opposite. The last few years, the Central Bank have used the mechanism of reducing interest rates on their own money. This was particularly evident after the 1998 crisis, when the world economy has been stalled in development. It was one of the existing tools to activate the economy.

Operations with Bonds
This tool is most popular in the United States, as well as U.S. government bonds - the least risky asset to date. In the first part of this article, I described how the Fed raises / lowers interest rates by selling / buying of securities through the Federal Bank of New York. But such a mechanism does not always work adequately.

By the end of the causes are unknown, but known as the most probable. One of them is a large number of foreign buyers of securities (the most active buyer of American bonds. Japan (about $ 711 billion). Each of the customers has its own purpose.

Sale of bonds: lead to the seizure of assets from the market, as well as commercial banks, buying bonds, spend money, which leads to a change in the structure of assets. Sales of bonds reduces the money supply in circulation and help reduce inflationary pressures. Purchases of bonds to increase the money supply and lowering interest rates (part 1). This gives new impetus to development.

The situation in the United States today is a classic by a band of interest rates and Treasury bonds. Interest rates are rising steadily. The stakes are rising in tandem with all new and new sales of bonds. Bond market is growing. U.S. Treasury Bonds are looking for their owners. At the moment (if the volume of demand for bonds unchanged) the level of bond proposals by the Fed is constantly growing. This reduces the value of the bonds, but also increases the% of return (ie% yield and duration of the bonds are essential for investors in deciding to purchase the asset). In the last speech of Alan Greenspan sounded interesting phrase that symbolizes some inconsistencies Fed policy. rates are rising, sales of bonds to rise, but interest rates on bonds decreases (increases their value - hence the proposal is growing faster than demand (one reason)).

Hypothetically, this situation can be resolved through further sales of bonds, but this is extreme fiction, which does not work in the market. It is possible that the best minds of the U.S. now wrestle with how to put in order the market bonds and interest rates in order to easily raise the rate to 3.5%. Possibly. The problem may arise when the demand becomes great, and then to the United States will have problems with the movement of rates, because all the money obtained on credit through the bonds, you will need to give +%. But we can only guess, based on market facts.

LIBOR Interbank market AND ASSETS
To date, rate LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) is the main indikativom in the credit markets around the world. This rate of interest under which the biggest banks in London are prepared to give credit to their own resources. In most, the banks VVA (British Bankers. Association). The rate of LIBOR differ on the currency in which credit is granted (euro, dollar, franc). Interest rates on the interbank market you can always look in the newspaper Financial Times in the section. Markets & Companies., Or on the website www.ft.com. As of February 22, LIBOR rates were as follows: 1god (3,46%), 6 months (3.11%), 3 months (2.87%), 1 month (2.62%). Below, the graph shows the dynamics of interest rates on loans LIBOR rate for 1 year and 6 months (for the past 15 years).

Fig.1 Dynamics LIBOR rates on loans for a period of 1 year in the last 15 years.

Fig.2 Dynamics of LIBOR rate loans for a period of 6 months for the past 15 years.

Roman Pavelko

Good time to trade

Linda Bradford Raška is a professional trader since 1981. She began her career as a stock exchange floor trader, and later organized a company to manage money "LBRGroup". Linda Raška was presented in the book Jack SCHWAGER "The new market wizards" and is well known for her own book "The Virtuosi of Wall Street." She also published a great number of educational articles on the short sale in the markets.

As experienced and novice traders spend a lot of time trying to understand the model on the markets - and displays graphics on a set of time scales, seasonal trends in some time months or years, the mood and data flow of funds. It is clear that there are many different ways to analyze markets. By analyzing the model, the trader is looking for a sufficient reason to conclude a bargain or to withdraw from the existing one. Markets monitored to detect subtle changes in the core ratio of supply and demand, and once observed "initial condition", which indicates a situation where there is a possibility of profit, trading just a matter of clicking on the "trigger" to enter the market, the definition of primary level of risk and then manage trade properly in response to market action. Trader is managed trade, watching the confirmation or non-confirmation of his assumptions. But why the trade will never think of such a light in real life? In the end, this is just a game of numbers and does not require much time to study the basic rules.

Perhaps this is because the trade is usually 10 per cent consists of studying the market and 90 per cent of the study itself.

Unfortunately, if the trader does not know itself, the market - this is a very expensive place to learn. If traders devote half the time they spent on market research, to examine their own behavior, the benefits would be much more than access to any training courses, videos, system or technical book ever written on the markets. The trade balance suffers when those transactions are not concluded, the trade is not respected and carried out "voluntary mistakes." Fortunately, traders can learn to identify those personal behaviors that lead to loss of attention and concentration, in addition to other bad habits.

Voluntary error
Let's look at some of the usual model, leading to voluntary errors. Consider a trader who carefully monitor the market for a particular situation and, for some reason, the conclusion of the transaction skipped. He then enters into a transaction spontaneous, upset that missed the first one. The market makes a good motion, and the expense increases. Trader then proud of profit, which he did, becoming negligent and relaxed, which leads to a prolonged period of recession. He misses the point of exit for fixed gains of the winning transaction and allows the position to become profitable in a loss. Upset, he then averaged in the hope, at least attempt to compensate for the loss.

Often bad behavior is the result of emotional reactions. However, in some cases simply the result of bad habits. The aim is to make trade as automatic as possible, and thus the ultimate goal should be to form a habit of winning. As Socrates said, "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is a habit." Here are some tools that can help traders determine the behavioral patterns that prevent them and, further, to eliminate them or at least return to the control. No less important is the ability for traders to identify behavior that is correct, because this is the first step to build confidence.

Identifying problems
Always Identify a specific problem or challenge. Here is a list of questions that will help identify areas that should draw more attention. Is there any time of day when the most losing the deal? Some traders achieve best results the morning and some afternoon. What types of transactions lead to more consistent results? Many traders have shown their best results, trading at a short time scale, and not giving a big picture raise doubts about the benefits of trade in the longer term. For others, attempts to make short-term skalpirovanie may result in an excess of the trade regime and frequent rapid spread. Is there a game plan or program trading, which is defined before the start of the trading day, and how close this plan implemented? Are there any extraneous factors from the outside, such as personal relationships, financial problems, or disease affecting the reasoning trader or distracting him? Is the days of big losses due to emotional or decrease alertness, and whether the trader has a more emotional or reactive to these days? Is the general peregoranie, leading to bad habits, lack of concentration or inertial excess trading regime? These are some of the reasons that normal, intelligent people can be caught in the destructive behavior. So, is it possible to break the patterns that lead to more emotional market downturns? And, as a trader can move it to the next level, knowing when things go right, and thus increasing the size of the best deals?

Body Language
For most people it is very easy to learn to recognize how their body reacts to different conditions. The athlete, who is in his plate 'can acutely feel fully relaxed. On the other hand, an athlete who "broken the rails, will be tense, worried and suetliv. Ability to pay attention to the physical reaction can help a trader to confirm when he is in good behavior, or violating their own rules. It can also learn to recognize that his body feels when the deal succeed and that it feels at least a transaction. Here is a personal example. When I know that the transaction is in line with my plan and the market operates as expected, even if the transaction is not completed yet, I find that I feel a high level of confidence that I did not feel forced to look at the screen. I do not feel anything of concern and relaxed sense of "confidence" that my position is good. However, if I am in the market, and did not feel "right, even if the market moves against me, I have гляжу on the screen, my breath a little more than petty, and I see no migaya. It may take five minutes, but I will still sit in exactly the same position on his chair. I also know of some graphical models, in which I participate when I begin to weary or blow. I know from experience that I will most likely reduce its level of vigilance in these moments and, therefore, I try to stop trading when I feel the same way.

The longer a trader trades on the market, the more he realizes that for the higher maximums can be followed by lower minimums - this is the only thing to always be alert. Many winning sports teams have won championships, building a tremendous defense. However, the ultimate goal of trade is to do more than just survive, and actually earn a random gifts that can offer the market. Therefore, just as important to recognize how you feel, being in a condition which can lead to errors in reasoning, it is equally important to determine the state when you can confidently move forward. This condition, when it's time to enter the market and stay there with a strong trend movement. Confirmation of winning the deal comes not only from the indicators, but also from our own physical condition, which gives the feeling of being in sync with the market. Ultimately, traders who reach this trade will be most successful. As time passes, the experience will be the most important asset trader. Every day, the trader gets more experience on how he feels signing the best deal and which of his own behavior led to trouble. As soon as he will explore the models that lead to mistakes, he will be much easier to make these mistakes less frequently. The less voluntary error, so, ultimately, more sustainable will be the curve of his assets.

Good time to trade
Sometimes the market can be boring times when easy to wonder whether to come back ever again "good times". Keep in mind that the volatile market movements. In any market can be vyalye long periods without any significant movements or periods of erratic volatile movements in both directions. The market rarely moves consistent with moderate fluctuation. Traders who do not even have a strong temperament, will have great emotional fluctuations. Experienced traders know that there is always one or two heavy-hearted period of the year, and these times call for great endurance and patience. If the trader does not have enough experience in this business, he must be alert so as not to force events and do not exceed the trade regime.

It is possible to break the model, which leads to more emotional recession? Is it possible to develop equanimity? These are areas that every trader will need to continuously fight. Even many professional traders make mistakes, after many years of very successful career. It takes only one incident where something is beginning to shrink from them, and they were diverted by external events such as divorce, illness or family problems in the business. External distraction can easily disrupt attention and concentration.

How to deal with personal challenges

Traders, who from time to time have emotional challenges or problems in their trading career by no means alone are. These challenges are part of business. Listen to your body and its signals - it always gives signs of bad habits. But may be some steps that will help protect you against each trader's own "Achilles five. Just look at the specific problem or challenge. For example, a trader may have the tendency to give a three-week return for the two days. Sometimes it is useful to identify the conditions that the previous period, when a trader becomes a "vulnerable". Does he feel himself likuyuschim, reaching new highs on your account? Or whether it was diverted events that took place outside the trade? Trader should learn to recognize the various sides of their personality that affect their trade, because these features will never go away. In the end, we are not robots - we are real people. But when we can recognize the patterns of feelings and emotions that we feel, before they started to bring trouble, we are less likely to make a deal, which is not part of our game plan. Keep trading plan every day. He is insured from entering into spontaneous transactions. It also protects the trader from the use of inappropriate strategies for the day, reminding him that the market is changing from period to period of development trend of variability. Trader can identify in advance the type of the period in which it is located, and be prepared to apply the appropriate strategy for the day. Traditions and rituals are the tools in order to remain prepared in the present and can help protect the trader's conduct consistent with his trading plan. Everyone needs tools to create structure and order in the otherwise very abstract game. Maintains records, such as the logical background of transactions, statistics or market indicator, is an excellent means of discipline, which helps to remain consistent. Also effective tool is a set of small goals every day. Such a goal might be to have a winning three consecutive days, or a clear plan to follow the trade during the day. This also may be - do not enter more than three transactions per day and to refrain from exceeding the trade regime. Or, open position in each five-bull or bear flag that formed. The small trader's goal should reflect his own style of trading, the needs and weaknesses.

Trader should learn to distinguish between errors caused by the market environment and the voluntary mistakes that he makes himself. He should avoid doing on the efforts, if the current market environment is unfavorable, or his normal style of trading is not suitable for current conditions. A good way to correct behavior is to always think about the desired result. Write it next to the trading screen. Read it every morning.

Each time a trader is going to take any action, it must ask itself whether it has its desired goal. It should provide a sense of victorious after a short-term goals and overplay this feeling many times in their minds as motivation. It is very clear to imagine that the goal is related to the market every day, not only in the long run. Traders should consider the possibility of a friend, a trader with whom they can share their daily results. Most traders will make a greater success if they would be responsible to anyone for the performance of their trade. They are less likely to allow a big loss to get out of control. If their reasoning harm, at least, there is someone else who can draw their attention to the fact that a trader deviates from its plan or may be in need of a break. Dude on the trade - this is not the one who offers advice on the market or in relation to specific transactions. If the trader feels the need to ask anyone's opinion on the council or the market, it is sure sign that he should not be at this point in the market. Dude should be the same coach who can lift the mood, or enhance, if necessary, motivation, or to serve a foreign party to indicate when a trader is in the destructive behavior of the commercial, which ends with a long recession. Markets can change quickly enough. Less biased trader can be more easily adjusted to the environment. If he starts to develop a bias that is not accompanied by technical factors, but due to emotions or weakness of the discourse, the signals of his body most likely did not tell him. Most professionals know when they are in a bad deal and they know when they make a mistake. The more the trader makes transactions, and the more experience he gets, the sooner he will learn to recognize their own personal traits, which indicate that he really is in a bad deal, irrespective of whether their level of stop-order or not. As long as the trader is able to benefit from this knowledge, this is another excellent reason to always have placed a stop order on the market! It is equally important that he remembered how his body feels when it is under control and has a winning attitude. The best traders go a step further and added to a winning position. The green light is lit! The foot on the gas! This concept is as important as learning to recognize when a transaction is not working.

What lesson should be learned
Trader, which passes through a losing period must ask ourselves, "What lesson should I explore?" "What should I do to change this situation?" He should never do yourself a disservice, as we look back at the graphics model with regret and saying "I had to see it." The problem is not that he sees or does not see. The problem always is how the trader managed transaction after it entered the market. Managing trade - is a process of determining the level of initial risk and then stop-movement orders from this initial level as the market movement or placement of orders on the way out of position, whether at a profit or loss.

Trader must rely on their best arguments at a time when a deal and manage it. From experience, he can learn to recognize behavioral patterns that he felt when his judgments can not be 100 percent true - the days when he was inclined to reduce their vigilance and the market can punish him. And then, after some time, the curve of the assets of the trader begins to improve steadily as it will do less and less voluntary mistakes!

Forex Magazine
www.lbrgroup.com

"Polymetal", bought in Highland Gold 9-percent share of the "May", ready to buy the remaining 91%

The Board of Directors of the British company Highland Gold Mining (HGM ), a leading gold production in Russia, for $ 105 million selling Ltd. "gold company" May "(May HCC), a Russian company that owns the license for the extraction of precious metals at May field in Chukotka. As stated in the message, HGM, the buyer stands a group of companies, including JSC "Polymetal", and none of which is connected with the directors of HGM or its major shareholders. Immediately "Polymetal" acquires from HGM 9 per cent share in the authorized capital of HCC May for $ 13.3 thousand remaining 91% of the share capital HCC May, as indicated in the message, "Polymetal, bought four Russian private companies are not connected with any" Polymetal "or with Highland Gold, for $ 134480tys. In addition, the "Polimetall, the entire amount of intra-corporate loans HCC May of HGM and its affiliated companies, was assigned to a third party not connected with" Polymetal ", for $ 24,852 million HCC May also is in arrears on the loan before the NOMOS-BANK in the $ 80 million this way, the total value of the asset acquisition was $ 105 million deal was closed by 28 April 2009 at. "Polymetal" and co-investors agreed to recapitalize "HCC May and make its charter capital of $ 104852 million in proportion to their shares of participation (and thus," Polymetal "will make about $ 9.436 billion). This amount will be directed to the repayment of the loan before Nomos-Bank and the intra-corporate lending. "Polymetal" I agree with getting approval to buy back 91 per cent share of the asset for $ 95.55 million in cash, or 15.925 billion ordinary shares of "Polymetal", plus the payment of cash adjustments related to the recapitalizations. Payment Method choose co. On these conditions, the company agreed to before the transaction by signing the corresponding agreement. First, however, these conditions must approve the board of directors "Polymetal". The report notes that a possible deal to acquire 91 per cent implies a control over the strategic field company with foreign participation, so in addition to approval by the FAS requires the approval of a government commission to monitor the implementation of foreign investment. The mine was purchased Maiskoe Highland Gold Mining in 2003. Loss from operations of May amounted to $ 6 million in the fiscal year ended 31 December 2007 and the last to date, complete the financial period. As stated in the message, HGM, in the 2 nd quarter of 2008 was prepared feasibility study, the estimated cost of which amounted to $ 500 million, however, soon after the feasibility study, it was decided to reduce the amount of work on the project and to his detailed analysis of current economic conditions. It was after a detailed analysis of the board of directors HGM and concluded that the sale of the facility for $ 105 million for the benefit of the company. The carrying value of the assets of May (with no confirmation of the audit) was in on 31 December 2008 $ 210 million is expected to amount to impairment losses of approximately $ 110 million, and it will be recognized as a result of this transaction. May 5 is one of the largest gold deposits in Russia. May was opened in 1972, and actively explore in the 1974-1986 biennium. Under the Code of JORC Mineral Resources Maisky deposit, located in Chukotka, in the JORC estimated at 19796 million tonnes of ore containing 232,768 tonnes of gold (7.48 million troy ounces). Meanwhile, audited assessment of stocks of May on the JORC is not done. Most recent feasibility study, approved by GKZ v2002 was appreciated stocks to 22.7 million tonnes of ore with stocks of gold, 248 tons. "Polymetal is planning to perform stock assessment and to review the feasibility study in the 1 st quarter of 2010, in the 3 rd quarter to resume construction work on site and in the 4 th quarter of 2011 to begin to concentrate.

AvtoVAZ cut nine vice-presidents

On Monday, the Board of Directors approved the reduction as soon AvtoVAZ nine vice-presidents of the plant. This "Kommersant" reported the head of board of directors of the factory, Director goskorporatsii "Rostehnologii Sergei Chemezov. The names of those who fall under the reduction, he did not name. The dismissal of nine vice-presidents of a reduction of management of AvtoVAZ in the third. Now in the composition of the plant consists of 27 people. This president Boris Aleshin, two of his first zama the rank of executive vice-presidents Igor Komarov (joined the board on Monday) and Ian Vincent (blokpaketa AvtoVAZ representative of the owner of the French group Renault), as well as 10 senior vice presidents, 13 ordinary and Secretary government. The fact that the reduction of the Vice-Presidents of AvtoVAZ was announced simultaneously with the emergence of the factory Igor Komarov, not accidental. New Deputy B. Alyoshin called minion deputy head "Rostehnology, Chapter crisis committee AvtoVAZ Igor Zavyalova. Informally in Rostehnologiyah "made it clear that the main objective of I. Komarova - AutoVAZ for control of the costs and financial flows. Before the advent Komarov, Boris Aleshin has been repeatedly pointed out that the board of 27 people - "absolutely normal managerial superstructure, which is created on a system of governance Renault". He added that the vice-presidents at the plant exactly as much as you want and to manage such a complex production, as AvtoVAZ. However, the newspaper notes, the reduction can be purely formal: the unofficial information, the majority of laid off will receive new posts at the plant.

BNP Paribas count on continued fall of the dollar / yen

After yesterday's fall of the dollar / yen managed to recover some losses and now holds around Y96.66, and BNP Paribas currency strategists do not exclude the possibility of new attempts at growth in the near future. However, they are reminded that the couple had recently Breaks the trend line and return to it would probably be perceived the market as an opportunity for the resumption of sales. The bank also expects that, while the fall in equity markets has been favorable for the Japanese currency, even when they are stabilized, yen will continue to be in demand, given the weakening of the impact of changes in appetite for risk to the currency, which is now increasingly dependent on investment flow of real bills. At BNP Paribas believes that the Japanese currency, there is still potential for growth in the short and medium term, and expect support for resumption of testing in the area of Y95.95, while break below would signal the continuation of motion in the direction of Y92.40, which will contribute to improving interest of Japanese investors in the domestic securities.

Analysts have a lot to learn from meteorologists

Analysts were predicting a mistake by shooting down somebody Ministry of Finance.

Of the economists came to worthless. Meteorologists, at least, those who at least cares a little weather in the UK do not trust the method of extrapolation. They just know that even if the sun shines today, tomorrow may still be rainy and windy. Certainly some of what analysts have learned to meteorologists, in particular, they adjust the data, taking into account seasonal factors: but sometimes does seem that they make their forecasts almost blindly. How many economists correctly predicted a turning point in economic activity? I suspect that a bit. They also believe that the economy is capable of self-regulation. Of course, the economic processes, sometimes out of control, but most usually a long time back in a stable condition. In fact, all mathematical models used by analysts to predict the dynamics of the national economy is based on the judgment. A year ago, when Britain's economy has teetered on the brink of a credit crisis, the Ministry of Finance analysts still believe that 2009 will be better than 2008, in which they predicted economic growth of 2% (real growth rate of only 0.7%). Analysts Ministry has acknowledged that 2008 was not a normal year for the country, but they said "... the stability of the UK economy demonstrates the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the benefits of flexible and open labor markets and capital, goods and services. Therefore, projected after 2008 to a normalization of the situation in the financial market and adapt to new market conditions, you will begin to rise in GDP. " According to British analysts' forecasts, economic growth in 2009 amount to 2.25-2.75%. Meanwhile, independent analysts are more cautious in their forecasts, expecting growth to only 1.9%. Now, nine months later, it became clear that economic growth in Britain will fall by 3-4%. In general, the entire community of analysts badly mistaken, but the MoF has bypassed all, promising a significant improvement in 2009. At the other end of London, on Trednidl Street analysts have done their work a little better. The Bank of England, unlike the Ministry of Finance does not publish a detailed economic forecasts, but still matches the data in reference to quarterly inflation. In February 2008, analysts predicted the Bank of England in the second half of 2008 economic growth will fall sharply (to 1.5%), but, then, in 2009, restored in him peculiar V-shaped manner. It should be noted that the forecast allows for the possibility of a recession, but few analysts believed the Bank of England that recession at this stage is a real threat.

Three months later, the Bank of England has revised the short-term prognosis for the worse: now acknowledged the existence of a threat of a recession, but it is still not part of the "main scenario" the Bank. Moreover, CB is still seen the chances of economic recovery in 2009. The Bank of England was able to recognize that a recession is still a "core script" of events in August last year, but by that time the UK has seen a crisis. This is more like an attempt to get a finger into the sky, rather than on accurate forecasts. Another forecast of Ministry of Finance was published last week, when the Minister announced his budget. Yes, he acknowledged that the situation is deteriorating, however, with the expressed hope for a noticeable improvement in the future. What, in general, quite obviously, because even after the Great Depression, a period of recovery. Ideally, analysts should work much better, but, alas ... Very few were smart or lucky enough to make the correct forecast for the past year and a half. What is taught their mistakes?

The first mistake - this is arrogance. This is a very reliable last year's budget shows. The Ministry of Finance is inclined to believe the view, first expressed in a report on the budget for 2006 that the British economy can grow steadily to 2.75% per year. The longer the recession will last, the less plausible is that assessment of capacity growth. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance piously believed that the economy has become much more flexible and that "the result is macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation to combat the current crisis. These findings appear to be totally wrong: the main problem of instability and financial system, rather than the flexibility of the economy, labor, goods and services. The second error - it is shortsighted and lack of planning. Perhaps, analysts and are not able to accurately predict the onset of a recession, but this does not mean that it did not occur. Instead, it is a sign of great instability, and forecasts to the contrary - no more than wishful thinking. The main rule of money: "a little good", thus it is important to use large cash surplus in the favorable economic situation. However, until now, only a few countries, the government has managed to come to such results ( basically, it was the Government who are interested in winning the next election). So, when the economy suddenly gives a crash, the financial situation, often can not count on strong support.

Third mistake - this is wishful thinking. When the economy is "stray from the path, of course, want to believe that the Government simply click your fingers, and all problems will be solved. It would not. The economic crisis is usually a snow dump on the head (otherwise, the prediction would be a matter of very light). This, in turn, means that the policy in a hurry to seek appropriate ways to begin to address the problem. A year and a half ago, for example, only one offered to make the quantitative easing. Recession in the UK are rare, but tend to be protracted, despite the praises flexible economy. Since the mid 70's and until now, a recession (defined by long periods of lower quarterly values of GDP), continued from five to nine quarters. Subsequent recovery (the time that took a return to the previous peak of activity) lasted from five to ten quarters. Even when activity is restored, begins a long time working on the final normalization of the situation. The fourth problem - the indifference of the rest of the world. Governments and heads of central banks like to pretend that they are all under control. Of course, something they can change, but, ultimately, the UK economy is dependent on changes in the global economy. Meteorologists know that the events that took place in another part of the world can affect the weather conditions in the UK. Analysts, however, to think, perhaps, that the island of Great Britain, not only geographically but also economically. Let's hope that the experience of the past year and a half, finally to make and believe the opposite.

Stephen King, managing director of HSBC

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

United Kingdom, Ministry of Finance: Low risk of deflation in Britain

The likelihood that the UK will be included in the deflationary cycle is low, said a representative of the British Treasury. David Ramsden, Head of macroeconomic and fiscal policy in the Treasury, said that the effect of weakening the pound "softened" deflationary pressure from lower wages in the UK. "We must remain vigilant to the risk, but I still think that the UK is low probability of materializing," - he said the legislators at a meeting of the Ad Hoc Committee.
Ramsden is one of the major posts in the Treasury.
UK retail price index for the year - the broadest measure of price pressures - fell in March for the first time almost 50 years. However, the consumer price index surprised economists, falling moderately in recent months to 2.9% in March, above the target level of 2% of the Bank of England.

Euro is back again at 1.30

Yesterday a pair of euro-dollar continued to fall. Exactly at 19.00 Moscow time the euro has gone down from 1.3125, and only an hour showed mark 1.2997. And no news at this time does not go, sensible explanations for this movement is not. Analytical tape all Lada continue to talk about the impact of epidemic influenza virus pork to markets. Indeed, in an atmosphere of a news vacuum more than simply refer to that. With regard to yesterday's motion, it seems, just in the market simultaneously was pour a large amount of the sale, which led to an unusually sharp decline in function and foot below the 1.31. Technically, the Euro-dollar was now in a triangle, pennant with the center at around 1.31. Support it passes through a minimum of 5 March, and April 21-22, and resistance - to the maximum shown, after the Fed meeting on March 19. Most likely, the euro, ottolknuvshis of Resistance triangle will soon go up again. The fact that the euro yesterday failed dramatically down, said that the market is ready to go up rather than down. In recent weeks we have often seen the reverse - the euro is growing rapidly, but then slowly and steadily declining and updates minima. Yesterday's sharp drop in euro said that worked the major foot and then down the market there is no point in going. Over the past two weeks, the foot, below the 1.31 is being twice already. Levels below 1.30 as well protorgovyvalis in previous months. At the same time, the area 1.30-1.45 protorgovan over the past year, much worse. From 1.60 euros last year, fell to 1.23 quickly, without protorgovki. In December, the euro quickly reached 1.47, then quickly fell in January. Only after the last Fed decision euro slightly protorgoval range 1.30-1.35, stay here for several weeks. We expect that the pair will soon protorgovyvat a range of 1.35-1.40.

Daily results of statistics at the end of the day - http://analit.onlinebroker.ru/forex/intraday.asp

Minus the discount rate

Ideal discount rate in the current circumstances the U.S. economy is minus 5%. That was reported by The Financial Times referring to the report analysts the U.S. Federal Reserve. Analysis of the Fed is on the so-called Taylor rule, which takes into account the level of inflation and unemployment in the country.

Under existing U.S. laws, the refinancing rate the Fed can not be less than 0%. Currently, the refinancing rate the Fed is between 0% to 0.25%.

Since the beginning of the crisis several times the Fed lowering the discount rate, allowing, thus, the money banks are cheaper and cheaper.

U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 decreased by 6.3 percent, while the first quarter of 2009 is expected to be negative 4,5-5 per cent.

Unemployment in the United States in March 2009 reached 8.5 percent, which is the worst rate in the last 27 years. In doing so, for the first time in 54 years in the country recorded an annual deflation.

Jena mnogonedelnogo reached peak against the dollar and euro

Jena mnogonedelnogo reached peak against the dollar and euro in Asia after the message Wall Street Journal, that the U.S. government makes Bank of America and Citigroup to increase capitalization due to concerns about the financial sector. People familiar with the situation say that American regulators have announced 2 U.S. banks on the need to increase the capital base after the first results of stress tests. Analysts point out that increasing the probability of capital infusions from the government.
Investors continue to buy the Japanese currency as a currency of refuge, concerns about the proliferation of porcine influenza yen provide support. The dollar fell to 95.97 yen - down from 30 March, while the euro fell to 124.66 with a minimum of 12 March. Messages that pig flu found in South Korea had no impact on the yen rate, if the situation is worse in the world, rising yen increase.
Effect of news on the pig flu in different Asian countries. The Singapore dollar fell, the Korean won remained unchanged, as it is a very sharp fall in early March on fears about the financial crisis. The Mexican peso, after yesterday's drop did not change relative to the U.S. today.

"Pork flu" has already become a serious threat to world economy

Pig flu outbreak has already become a serious threat to the crisis-ridden global economy, leading to sharp fluctuations in exchange rates and securities, say experts. "One last thing we needed in a time-matched to the global financial and economic crisis - it is an outbreak of pig influenza," - told the Associated Press agency chief economist of ECU Group Neil McKinnon.

Opening on Monday, the last of the leading world markets, Wall Street immediately reacted to the sharp decline began in the last weekend of the dissemination of news on the new virus "CA 042009 from Mexico to New Zealand.

DJIA index in the first few minutes of trades fell by 1% (77 points) - up to 7999 point, while the S & P 500 fell by 1.1% (10 points) - up to 857 points. NASDAQ index also lost 1.1% (18 points), down to 1676 points, transmits Associated Press.

Monday morning began the first weekly decline in Asian stock indices - except for staying in the "green zone" of Japan. The Tokyo stock market index Nikkei, reflecting the dynamics of quotations of shares 225 leading companies of Japan, to close on Monday, grew slightly - by 0.2% (18.35 points), up to at 8726.34 points.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 2.7%, to 14840.42 points. In South Korea Kospi index lost 1.1%, to close at 1339.83 points. In mainland China composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange (Shanghai Composite Index) fell by 1.8%. Markets India, Singapore and Taiwan also registered a decline.

The total for the 14 countries in the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) index MSCI AC Asia Pacific Day on Monday fell to 1.8% from a record over the past six months heights reached in mid-April.

"The memory of SARS (in 2003 - Ed.) Is still fresh in the minds of Asian investors," - said the agency Bloomberg head of Asian securities Singapore Branch ABN Amro Private Bank Daphne Roth.

Six years ago, Asian airports almost deserted, and for the second quarter of 2003, Asian carriers have transported at 45% less passengers than the same period a year earlier.

"Ice breath swept over the market, as people will remember the SARS virus - believed the investment director of Seven Investment Management Justin Urkuhart. - The threat of a pandemic will increase the weakness of world trade: We have seen SARS noticeably cut interest index point when they were floated, but in times of weakness it will be even more unpleasant. "

Another responded to the new threat to Europe: in the course of the trading day the euro / dollar is falling to 1.3132 dollars per euro compared with 1.3252 dollars on Friday evening.

"The prospect of a global outbreak of influenza, with potentially disastrous consequences prompted traders to seek refuge in the safe haven dollar", - said CMC Markets currency analyst James Hughes.

Upavshaya 2 Jan., 2009 to 1.4058 per euro U.S. currency may rise for a month to a level of 1.2800 per euro, said the agency Bloomberg head of North America, Boston State Street Global Markets LLC, Robert Blake.

"If the disease would be more lethal, the dollar will rise, - quotes Reuters the bank BNP Paribas prepared a note to clients. - Given the recent" green shoots "(growth in the global economy), the market should be viewed any worsening of the outbreak (influenza) as an obstacle to global reconstruction. "

During the day pan-European index Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell 1.2% - it pulled down most seriously by the news shares of airlines, hotels and restaurants. Major continental exchanges fell in the range of 1,0-1,4% and the MSCI World index by mid-day on Monday - by 0.7%.

However, in world markets and have found a group of companies whose shares went up. First, it refers to the largest producers of drugs and vaccines, as concerns GlaxoSmithKline and Roche, as well as manufacturers of protective equipment (eg, Sperian Protection), and companies involved in fishing and fish farming.

According to last year's World Bank estimates, the global pandemic of avian flu could cost the world at 3 trillion dollars and reduce world GDP by 5%.