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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Market Geometry Hanna
Howard Arington W. D. Gann developed several unique methods for the study of price charts, and the central part of his methods were geometric angles of the price and time. Let's see how you can use the intersection of the prime corners Hanna, to predict the time to turn the price dynamics. I do not know whether this technique Gunn himself, but to me it seemed interesting and I want to present it to you, as I understand it.
In my example I will use a daily schedule of "JDS Uniphase". I do not give any investment advice, but merely show his thought process in order to detect market timing, using the corners Hanna. The basic principle of this theory: upward angle of Hanna will be posted on the schedule at a significant turning a minimum, and top-down angle of Hanna will be placed at a significant turning maximum. Initially we will be interested in crossing the lines of 1x1 with horizontal lines and the intersection of two lines of 1x1. In this example, the intersection of those marked by red arrows.
For visibility, the first illustration I have shown just crossing the line 1x1. However, I also see the line 2x1 and 1x2, and their intersection, and show them to my pictures in the afternoon schedule of JDSU. I started with a blank schedule JDSU and first tried to find the price and time to use as a line of 1x1. For this I use a special tool Hanna graphical program "Ensign Windows" and set the default settings to show only the corners of 1x1, 2x1 and 1x2. Also, I check the option to use the maximum or minimum value of the bar to accommodate peaks. Line 1x1 depicted in blue, while the line of 2x1 and 1x2 are shown in red.
The first peak was placed at a substantial minimum 05.10.1998g. I Adapt placement line 1x1, so that it is visually in line with market movement. I tried to develop trend occurred along these lines, or they provide the support and resistance. The greater the correlation could be found, so they are better suited. Since the peak is placed on the schedule, the program shows the relationship between price and time as the number of vertices. I see these numbers and try to select the price and time 1x1, which is a derivative of the unit price, or has some relationship to the Hanna, Fibonacci numbers, or part of the circle. My first peak 05.10.1998g. coincided with the value 1x1 equal to 21.0. This means that the line 1x1 grows at a rate of 21 cents per day. I am satisfied with the value 21, because it is a number sequence Hanna, and the number of the Fibonacci sequence.
To accommodate the additional peaks Hanna from recent major maximum and minimum, I increased intervalbarov. I will find a new meaning to 1x1, because the volatility of JDSU in 2000. much more than in 1998. I find that the slope of 1x1 to 60 cents for one bar fits, and I want to use 60 as the value 1x1 for all vertices in subsequent studies. I fit the number 60 because it is also part of a circle of 360 degrees, while 58, 59, 61 and 62 are not. I added a rising peak in the minimum of 15.12.1999g. and a downward peak at the maximum of 21.01.2000g. to see how the intersection of price and time may occur.
I noted the crossing, which predict the time to turn red arrows. Vertical green lines held by the red arrows to the intersection for better visibility. Please note that the decline from 2x1 (steep red) had a good intersection with all four lines of ascending peaks Hanna held a minimum of 15.12.1999g.
Angles Hanna also provide support and resistance, and many of these points have been marked by horizontal blue arrows. As can be seen from the example, when an angular line to cross, the price will move and consolidate at the next line.
For this example was taken daily schedule JDSU, but I am sure that similar results can be obtained for any other marketing tool, and another temporary format. However, you have to carefully study the feasibility of the proposed technology for its trading strategy. In addition, I do not believe that the proposed study is an unconditional and final, and I hope that you are conducting your own research, will find something new and interesting.
The use of graphics programs
Technical Tool Squares Hanna "in the graphic program" Ensign Windows "is a very flexible and can be used to show trends, timing, and price levels. "Square Hanna" indicate the possible time and price movements of major maxima and minima. To build a "square Hanna" on the schedule requires the start and end points. Since the "square Hanna" indicate the possible values for the future of bars, it is often useful to move the bars schedule left, so that the right of the graph, it was clear the place. To build a "square Hanna" on the graph move the cursor on the graph at the starting point. The starting point in the general case is an important maximum or minimum on the graph. Then the cursor is dragged to the right until the desired end point is not reached. Start and end points are corners of the square. The ultimate point is often located on the right side of the schedule. Let's see how to form a tool for setting parameters.
Price
"Square Hanna" could hold the horizontal line on the price levels shown in the horizontal marked list. These price levels are similar to those which can be constructed using the Fibonacci price levels. You must follow the trend to change direction on the price level "square Hanna."
Time
"Square Hanna" could hold the vertical line spacing as shown in the vertical marked list. These vertical lines are similar to those which can be constructed using the Cyclic tools. Keep an eye on the trend to change the time intervals "square Hanna."
Tool Square Hanna "horizontal price levels and with a vertical time intervals is shown below.
In our example, the parameters 1/8-oy, 1/4-y, 3/8-oy, and the average point were tested for both horizontal level, and for the vertical spacing. Thus, our square and is divided horizontally and vertically into eight parts. Lines 3 / 8 and 5 / 8 are shown in red.
Another variant of the "Square Hanna was to check the parameter fan lines, which is shown in the example of filling forms for the parameters. When fan Lines noted, the tool is moving from the horizontal and vertical lines for the fan of lines from the four corners of Hanna, as shown below.
Fan through the place of the angles to the same Eighthly points on the perimeter squared, used horizontal and vertical lines in the previous example. Horizontal marked list select the point used by the two fan-lines, where the summit is on the left side of the square. Vertical marked list select the point, used two fan lines peak which is located on the right side of the square. Typical configuration for the fan of lines would have to maintain two corners on the left side, but to address the two corners on the right side, not checking all the parameters in a vertical list of options other than the perimeter.
In addition to predicting the time turn at the intersection of the primary corners of Hanna, which were considered above. Lines Hanna is also the support and resistance, many of which can be easily found in the graphic example.
Squares Hanna
Now let us look at the results of the next study that I conducted. I decided to place the tool "Square Hanna" on the graph with a vertical mid-point of the maximum of 7 January 2000. The square was pomeschens the left edge of 7 January, and extended in a way that the horizontal midpoint aligned with a minimum of 13 September. The base box has been placed on a minimum of 13 September. Below is the image that I have received.
Measuring time
I placed the left edge on 7 January 2000. and extended the box so that the horizontal midpoint to align with a minimum of 13 September 2000. Interestingly, a maximum of 16 January 2001. coincided with a period 3 / 4 square! This time is indicated by a red arrow above the side of the square, indicating the highest maximum in the graph.
I also notice that on January 6, 2000. a new moon! A full moon was on 13 September. (for details, see "Lunar phase market" in the number 19)
Support and Resistance
Arrows on the graph indicated support or opposition, secured fan lines are held from 4 corners of the square. From the schedule shows that the price movement is not accidental, but it is mathematically sound to predict.
Reverse engineering
In my example, I used the graphical tool "Square Hanna, of the lesser peaks of the recent 5-minute schedule JNPR. Max was 6 February 2001. and amounted to $ 106.50. Let us apply the technique based on the theory of square roots (for details, see the "Pyramid of the market" at number 18) to obtain the projected price:
1) The square root of 106.50 = $ 10.320
2) subtracting 1, we obtain 9.320
3) The square of 9.320 = $ 86.86
86.86 The price is 180 degrees around the square Hanna of the Nine of the price of $ 106.50. Therefore, as I have two prices, which independently provide 180 degrees, I choose the width of a square of 180 bars. This result shows the 1x1, 1x2 and 2x1 fan lines from the four corners of the square Hanna.
Left apex angle is less than the maximum of the trend at around $ 106.50. The lower right corner is at 180 degrees for the price of $ 86.86 and at 180 bars to the right. Please note a few key points:
1. The red line 1x2 from the upper left corner stopped the recovery in the 138 bar on the price of $ 98,875.
2. The red line 1x2 from the bottom left corner stopped the fall in the 97 bar on the price of $ 92.
3. Two red lines 1x2, referred to in paragraphs 1) and 2) also stopped the recovery in the bar 186 on the price of $ 96.75.
4. The trend is moving up and down on the two red lines of the 2x1 right-hand corners.
Example also shows the construction of pyramid points, started with the same trend of smaller peaks. The design includes a number of pyramid points bright blue horizontal price levels, pale red and green diagonal lines, vertical lines and turquoise. (for details, see "The Pyramid of the market" at number 18). Here we can see how two tools work together.
In my example I will use a daily schedule of "JDS Uniphase". I do not give any investment advice, but merely show his thought process in order to detect market timing, using the corners Hanna. The basic principle of this theory: upward angle of Hanna will be posted on the schedule at a significant turning a minimum, and top-down angle of Hanna will be placed at a significant turning maximum. Initially we will be interested in crossing the lines of 1x1 with horizontal lines and the intersection of two lines of 1x1. In this example, the intersection of those marked by red arrows.
For visibility, the first illustration I have shown just crossing the line 1x1. However, I also see the line 2x1 and 1x2, and their intersection, and show them to my pictures in the afternoon schedule of JDSU. I started with a blank schedule JDSU and first tried to find the price and time to use as a line of 1x1. For this I use a special tool Hanna graphical program "Ensign Windows" and set the default settings to show only the corners of 1x1, 2x1 and 1x2. Also, I check the option to use the maximum or minimum value of the bar to accommodate peaks. Line 1x1 depicted in blue, while the line of 2x1 and 1x2 are shown in red.The first peak was placed at a substantial minimum 05.10.1998g. I Adapt placement line 1x1, so that it is visually in line with market movement. I tried to develop trend occurred along these lines, or they provide the support and resistance. The greater the correlation could be found, so they are better suited. Since the peak is placed on the schedule, the program shows the relationship between price and time as the number of vertices. I see these numbers and try to select the price and time 1x1, which is a derivative of the unit price, or has some relationship to the Hanna, Fibonacci numbers, or part of the circle. My first peak 05.10.1998g. coincided with the value 1x1 equal to 21.0. This means that the line 1x1 grows at a rate of 21 cents per day. I am satisfied with the value 21, because it is a number sequence Hanna, and the number of the Fibonacci sequence.
To accommodate the additional peaks Hanna from recent major maximum and minimum, I increased intervalbarov. I will find a new meaning to 1x1, because the volatility of JDSU in 2000. much more than in 1998. I find that the slope of 1x1 to 60 cents for one bar fits, and I want to use 60 as the value 1x1 for all vertices in subsequent studies. I fit the number 60 because it is also part of a circle of 360 degrees, while 58, 59, 61 and 62 are not. I added a rising peak in the minimum of 15.12.1999g. and a downward peak at the maximum of 21.01.2000g. to see how the intersection of price and time may occur.I noted the crossing, which predict the time to turn red arrows. Vertical green lines held by the red arrows to the intersection for better visibility. Please note that the decline from 2x1 (steep red) had a good intersection with all four lines of ascending peaks Hanna held a minimum of 15.12.1999g.
Angles Hanna also provide support and resistance, and many of these points have been marked by horizontal blue arrows. As can be seen from the example, when an angular line to cross, the price will move and consolidate at the next line.
For this example was taken daily schedule JDSU, but I am sure that similar results can be obtained for any other marketing tool, and another temporary format. However, you have to carefully study the feasibility of the proposed technology for its trading strategy. In addition, I do not believe that the proposed study is an unconditional and final, and I hope that you are conducting your own research, will find something new and interesting.The use of graphics programs
Technical Tool Squares Hanna "in the graphic program" Ensign Windows "is a very flexible and can be used to show trends, timing, and price levels. "Square Hanna" indicate the possible time and price movements of major maxima and minima. To build a "square Hanna" on the schedule requires the start and end points. Since the "square Hanna" indicate the possible values for the future of bars, it is often useful to move the bars schedule left, so that the right of the graph, it was clear the place. To build a "square Hanna" on the graph move the cursor on the graph at the starting point. The starting point in the general case is an important maximum or minimum on the graph. Then the cursor is dragged to the right until the desired end point is not reached. Start and end points are corners of the square. The ultimate point is often located on the right side of the schedule. Let's see how to form a tool for setting parameters.
Price
"Square Hanna" could hold the horizontal line on the price levels shown in the horizontal marked list. These price levels are similar to those which can be constructed using the Fibonacci price levels. You must follow the trend to change direction on the price level "square Hanna."
Time
"Square Hanna" could hold the vertical line spacing as shown in the vertical marked list. These vertical lines are similar to those which can be constructed using the Cyclic tools. Keep an eye on the trend to change the time intervals "square Hanna."
Tool Square Hanna "horizontal price levels and with a vertical time intervals is shown below.
In our example, the parameters 1/8-oy, 1/4-y, 3/8-oy, and the average point were tested for both horizontal level, and for the vertical spacing. Thus, our square and is divided horizontally and vertically into eight parts. Lines 3 / 8 and 5 / 8 are shown in red.Another variant of the "Square Hanna was to check the parameter fan lines, which is shown in the example of filling forms for the parameters. When fan Lines noted, the tool is moving from the horizontal and vertical lines for the fan of lines from the four corners of Hanna, as shown below.
Fan through the place of the angles to the same Eighthly points on the perimeter squared, used horizontal and vertical lines in the previous example. Horizontal marked list select the point used by the two fan-lines, where the summit is on the left side of the square. Vertical marked list select the point, used two fan lines peak which is located on the right side of the square. Typical configuration for the fan of lines would have to maintain two corners on the left side, but to address the two corners on the right side, not checking all the parameters in a vertical list of options other than the perimeter.In addition to predicting the time turn at the intersection of the primary corners of Hanna, which were considered above. Lines Hanna is also the support and resistance, many of which can be easily found in the graphic example.
Squares Hanna
Now let us look at the results of the next study that I conducted. I decided to place the tool "Square Hanna" on the graph with a vertical mid-point of the maximum of 7 January 2000. The square was pomeschens the left edge of 7 January, and extended in a way that the horizontal midpoint aligned with a minimum of 13 September. The base box has been placed on a minimum of 13 September. Below is the image that I have received.
Measuring time
I placed the left edge on 7 January 2000. and extended the box so that the horizontal midpoint to align with a minimum of 13 September 2000. Interestingly, a maximum of 16 January 2001. coincided with a period 3 / 4 square! This time is indicated by a red arrow above the side of the square, indicating the highest maximum in the graph.
I also notice that on January 6, 2000. a new moon! A full moon was on 13 September. (for details, see "Lunar phase market" in the number 19)
Support and Resistance
Arrows on the graph indicated support or opposition, secured fan lines are held from 4 corners of the square. From the schedule shows that the price movement is not accidental, but it is mathematically sound to predict.
Reverse engineering
In my example, I used the graphical tool "Square Hanna, of the lesser peaks of the recent 5-minute schedule JNPR. Max was 6 February 2001. and amounted to $ 106.50. Let us apply the technique based on the theory of square roots (for details, see the "Pyramid of the market" at number 18) to obtain the projected price:
1) The square root of 106.50 = $ 10.320
2) subtracting 1, we obtain 9.320
3) The square of 9.320 = $ 86.86
86.86 The price is 180 degrees around the square Hanna of the Nine of the price of $ 106.50. Therefore, as I have two prices, which independently provide 180 degrees, I choose the width of a square of 180 bars. This result shows the 1x1, 1x2 and 2x1 fan lines from the four corners of the square Hanna.
Left apex angle is less than the maximum of the trend at around $ 106.50. The lower right corner is at 180 degrees for the price of $ 86.86 and at 180 bars to the right. Please note a few key points:1. The red line 1x2 from the upper left corner stopped the recovery in the 138 bar on the price of $ 98,875.
2. The red line 1x2 from the bottom left corner stopped the fall in the 97 bar on the price of $ 92.
3. Two red lines 1x2, referred to in paragraphs 1) and 2) also stopped the recovery in the bar 186 on the price of $ 96.75.
4. The trend is moving up and down on the two red lines of the 2x1 right-hand corners.
Example also shows the construction of pyramid points, started with the same trend of smaller peaks. The design includes a number of pyramid points bright blue horizontal price levels, pale red and green diagonal lines, vertical lines and turquoise. (for details, see "The Pyramid of the market" at number 18). Here we can see how two tools work together.
Victor Gusev - about football, about money and about yourself
TB: Despite the fact that our interview should be about the money, I can not overlook the case of touch football theme. Do you argue with your friends for money, betting on the outcome of matches?
VG: It's quite interesting. We have developed a network of totalizators, which can be put on almost everything - at the Championship of Spain, France, UEFA Cup, Russian League, basketball, volleyball, etc. However, at the tote, I do not play, because I want to watch the match without bias. When you do bet, you can not help wish the victory of the team, which placed. Besides, I always want to beat a weak team. It's nice when the win light - there is an element of sensationalism. But if you're constantly going to put on the weakest, nothing good will come of this.
TB: A game for the money in other areas, except sports, you attract? Casinos, for example?
VG: I am a very excitable person, and that is why the casinos try to avoid. Yes, and in Russia to play, and especially to win at the casino, even dangerous, because the gains can not deliver to homes. Of course, in Las Vegas or Monte Carlo sin not to play it - part of the cultural program, but this must be referring only to the cultural program.
TB: Yes, in Russia a special relationship to money, again with regard to football. You agree that in Russia, consumer attitude towards this sport? They spread on the full roll, but not so much earning.
VG: This is true, but in relation to past players. Throughout his sporting life, they worked, and then have no money. And because all the free time they gave the football team, very few football players end their careers moved in the beginning of a new work or other professions.
TB: The situation has changed now?
VG: Now, if you normally play, then to the 32-35-ty years you tend to finish the floor with a solid amount is so solid that can be a long time and then not work. Of course, the salaries of our players is difficult to compare with the wages players Manchester United, Arsenal or Chelsea, but these figures are quite comparable to the salaries of players average English club, for example.
TB: So, if our players are materially well-provided, we can assume that they will play more efficiently?
VG: I think this has nothing to do. All depends on the person. The very last way to put players on the field - let God do the same now lay. I myself play in amateur football, I was not paying for it, but I am ready to give everything for the victory. But the justification of our players can say that they are facing much stronger competition at the international level. Now football invested large sums of money. Our guys have to play against the millionaires.
TB: Okay, let's go back to "your" money. Do you remember how you earned your first money?
VG: Of course. That was when I was in the English special school, approximately, in the 8-m class. We came to American TV, they had to a boy or a girl talked about the Soviet-American relations in the English language. For some reason, for this purpose I have chosen, although the level of English we all had the same. I remember the director constantly reminded me that I was not swinging in the frame. And I paid for it $ 40 - enormous in those times the money.
TB: And how you were raised by parents in regard to money?
VG: The parents did not raise me in this regard, but my mom likes to recall, as I once came home and solemnly said: "I will always be money, even if to do so I will have to work from dawn till dusk!"
TB: Who, in your opinion, should earn more - man or woman?
VG: It may be that many women would find me chauvinist, but I am of the traditional views - believe the family should contain a man, a woman let him work at his pleasure. In principle, that is, of course, there are women in the quest for equality, so I have nothing against the fact that women make a career and earn more money. The main thing is that this desire for equality, it was within reason, and the woman did not believe would be (as in America) that it infringes the rights of man only because it opens the door and skip forward.
TB: You zaviduete people who earn more than you?
VG: During my youth society was set up in another way - many things that are now all engaged in legally, then called the speculation, they were tried. So I salute the people of my age, who, despite all this, were able to adjust to new life, could have done themselves businessmen. Sorry for the people who put money above all else - love, friendship, honesty. Money in fact just merely innocent pieces of paper. As for jealousy ... I envy only one person - myself, because my passion, children's favorite hobby into a profession.
TB: Victor, probably by the end of the interview, many readers to look forward to you all the same one - at the European Football Championship in Portugal ...
VG: I think the chances are high among the French team. They have a very strong selection of players. But it is rather unpredictable, because, when the field went 11 people to 11-ty, immediately forget what country is richer, with more than the rich clubs and the more powerful players. They went, and so solves the moment - the willingness, attitude, and good luck.
VG: It's quite interesting. We have developed a network of totalizators, which can be put on almost everything - at the Championship of Spain, France, UEFA Cup, Russian League, basketball, volleyball, etc. However, at the tote, I do not play, because I want to watch the match without bias. When you do bet, you can not help wish the victory of the team, which placed. Besides, I always want to beat a weak team. It's nice when the win light - there is an element of sensationalism. But if you're constantly going to put on the weakest, nothing good will come of this.
TB: A game for the money in other areas, except sports, you attract? Casinos, for example?VG: I am a very excitable person, and that is why the casinos try to avoid. Yes, and in Russia to play, and especially to win at the casino, even dangerous, because the gains can not deliver to homes. Of course, in Las Vegas or Monte Carlo sin not to play it - part of the cultural program, but this must be referring only to the cultural program.
TB: Yes, in Russia a special relationship to money, again with regard to football. You agree that in Russia, consumer attitude towards this sport? They spread on the full roll, but not so much earning.
VG: This is true, but in relation to past players. Throughout his sporting life, they worked, and then have no money. And because all the free time they gave the football team, very few football players end their careers moved in the beginning of a new work or other professions.
TB: The situation has changed now?
VG: Now, if you normally play, then to the 32-35-ty years you tend to finish the floor with a solid amount is so solid that can be a long time and then not work. Of course, the salaries of our players is difficult to compare with the wages players Manchester United, Arsenal or Chelsea, but these figures are quite comparable to the salaries of players average English club, for example.
TB: So, if our players are materially well-provided, we can assume that they will play more efficiently?
VG: I think this has nothing to do. All depends on the person. The very last way to put players on the field - let God do the same now lay. I myself play in amateur football, I was not paying for it, but I am ready to give everything for the victory. But the justification of our players can say that they are facing much stronger competition at the international level. Now football invested large sums of money. Our guys have to play against the millionaires.
TB: Okay, let's go back to "your" money. Do you remember how you earned your first money?
VG: Of course. That was when I was in the English special school, approximately, in the 8-m class. We came to American TV, they had to a boy or a girl talked about the Soviet-American relations in the English language. For some reason, for this purpose I have chosen, although the level of English we all had the same. I remember the director constantly reminded me that I was not swinging in the frame. And I paid for it $ 40 - enormous in those times the money.
TB: And how you were raised by parents in regard to money?
VG: The parents did not raise me in this regard, but my mom likes to recall, as I once came home and solemnly said: "I will always be money, even if to do so I will have to work from dawn till dusk!"
TB: Who, in your opinion, should earn more - man or woman?
VG: It may be that many women would find me chauvinist, but I am of the traditional views - believe the family should contain a man, a woman let him work at his pleasure. In principle, that is, of course, there are women in the quest for equality, so I have nothing against the fact that women make a career and earn more money. The main thing is that this desire for equality, it was within reason, and the woman did not believe would be (as in America) that it infringes the rights of man only because it opens the door and skip forward.
TB: You zaviduete people who earn more than you?
VG: During my youth society was set up in another way - many things that are now all engaged in legally, then called the speculation, they were tried. So I salute the people of my age, who, despite all this, were able to adjust to new life, could have done themselves businessmen. Sorry for the people who put money above all else - love, friendship, honesty. Money in fact just merely innocent pieces of paper. As for jealousy ... I envy only one person - myself, because my passion, children's favorite hobby into a profession.
TB: Victor, probably by the end of the interview, many readers to look forward to you all the same one - at the European Football Championship in Portugal ...
VG: I think the chances are high among the French team. They have a very strong selection of players. But it is rather unpredictable, because, when the field went 11 people to 11-ty, immediately forget what country is richer, with more than the rich clubs and the more powerful players. They went, and so solves the moment - the willingness, attitude, and good luck.
Unknown pages In the Biography of George Soros
The dossier, which should be lower, based on the record bureau EIR (Executive Intelligence Review) at Wiesbaden in Germany, published on 1 October 1996, called "Summary of mega-speculator George Soros."
The magazine "Time" described the financier George Soros as "a modern Robin Hood, who rob the rich to give to poor countries in eastern Europe and Russia. It claimed that Soros makes huge financial profits spekuliruya against the Western central banks, and uses the profits to help the postcommunist economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to help them create what he calls "Open Society."
The man who broke the Bank of England?
Analysis of clandestine financial networks, Soros is vital to understand the true dimension "problem Soros in eastern Europe and other countries.
After the crisis of the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992., When the Bank of England was forced to abandon efforts to stabilize the pound sterling, from the shadow of a little financial shape, saying that he personally made a $ 1 billion in speculation against the British pound. Speculators were Hungarian origin George Soros, who wait the war in Hungary under false papers. Soros left Hungary after the war, and received U.S. citizenship after several years in London. Today, Soros is based in New York, but it says little about who he was and what he said.
After his impressive claims to possess "Midas touch", Soros has allowed public use of his name in an apparent attempt to influence the world financial markets.
Soros loudly announced in March 1993. That the price of gold should rise sharply: he said he had just received "inside information" that China is going to buy a huge kolichetvo gold for its rapidly growing economy. Soros was able to raise the demand for buying gold, which allowed prices to rise by more than 20% over four months to the highest level since 1991. And that is typical for Soros, when prostachki scrambled to buy, pushing prices higher, Soros and his friend Sir James Goldsmith secretly began selling their gold with a large profit.
Then, in early June 1993. Soros announced his intention to cause a sale of German government bonds in favor of French. In an open letter to the editor of the London "Times" Anatole Kaletskomu, Soros said "Down with the D-mark!" At various times, Soros attacked the currency of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Mexico, entering the newly opened financial markets which have little experience with foreign investors, which allows it alone, with large cash resources to manipulate the currency. Soros is beginning to market to buy assets in the local market, while the other is that naive to assume that he knows something they do not know. As in the case of gold, when the smaller investors begin to follow Soros, pushing prices up, Soros begins to sell, with its 40% or 100% profit. He then proceeds to other markets, and often, and to a new country in search of another goal for his speculations. This technique is called "hit and run."
The secret fund "Quantum Fund NV"
Soros is the visible side a vast secret network of private financial interests, managed by the leading aristocratic and royal names in Europe, centered in the British House of Windsor. The network, called its members "club Islands", was created after the collapse of the British Empire after World War II.
Instead of using the powers of the State to achieve its geopolitical objectives, has been developed by the network to stay in the private financial interests, tied to the old aristocratic oligarchy of western Europe. Center of the "Club of Islands" is the financial center - London. Soros is one of those in the Middle Ages were called - Hofjuden, "court Jews", which was deployed aristocratic families. The most important of such "Jews who are not Jews" are a Rothschild, who started his career thanks to Soros.
Soros is American only on the passport. He - the global financial operator, who happens falls in New York, simply because there is money. Soros speculates in world financial markets through its offshore company "Quantum Fund NV", a private investment fund. His hedge fund reportedly manages some $ 11-14 billion of investors' funds, the most prominent of whom, according to Soros, is the British Queen Elizabeth.
"Quantum Fund" is registered offshore in the Netherlands Antilles in the Caribbean Sea. This helps to avoid taxes and conceal the true nature of his investors and what he is doing with their money.
Soros has taken care that none of the 99 frequent investors who participate in its various funds was not an American. Under U.S. law on securities, hedge funds should not include more than 99 wealthy investors, the so-called "sophisticated investors". In creating its investment company as an offshore hedge fund, Soros avoids public research.
Soros himself is not even in the government "Quantum Fund". Legally it is an investment adviser "Quantum Fund" from another company "Soros Fund Management" in New York. In the board of directors "Quantum Fund NV" as not a single American citizen. His directors are Swiss, Italian and British financiers.
It is clear that Soros and the Rothschild chose not to show their relationship, nor does it advertise its links to London, the British Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Israel and American influential circles. Therefore, a myth, that Soros is the sole financial "genius" who through their talent detect future changes in the markets, has become one of the most successful speculators. According to those who did business with him, Soros never makes important steps without a substantial investment information on the person.
The board of directors of "Quantum Fund NV" Kets is Richard, a man Rotshilda, who is also a member of the board "London NM Rothschild" and is the head of "Rothschild Italia SpA" in Milan. Another link with the family Rotshildov is another member of the board of "Quantum Fund" Nils O'Taube partner the London investment group "St. James Place Capital", which is the main partner of Lord Rothschild.
Frequent business partner of Soros in various speculative matters, including the manipulation of the gold in 1993., It's not related to the "Quantum Fund" directly, is an Anglo-French speculator Sir James Goldsmith, a family cousin Rotshildov.
From the first days when Soros created his own investment fund in 1969. He was bound to its success to its relation to the banking network of family Rotshildov. Soros worked in New York in the 1960's in a small private bank was closely associated with the Rothschild, namely, "Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder. Inc.", Bank name, representing the interests of Rotshilda in Germany during the time of Bismarck. To this day, "A. and S. Bleichroeder. Inc." remains the primary holder, along with the "Citibank", the funds "Quantum Fund" Soros. George K. Karlvays associated with the scandalously famous "Rothschild Bank AG" in Zurich, gave Soros of seed capital and led the first investors in his "Quantum Fund".
Patronage Rothschild
The attitude of the financial terms of the Soros Rothschild is not accidental. Will make a small digression into history to explain the extraordinary success of a mere private speculator, and a strange ability to Soros "to play" so many times on these high-risk markets. Soros has access to "inside information" in some of the highest government and private offices in the world.
Since World War II, the Rothschild family tried to create a public myth about its own insignificance. The family spent substantial sums to create the image of a family of wealthy, but quiet "gentlemen", some of whom prefer to do fine French wines, some of which have dedicated themselves to philanthropy. They were involved in the creation of Israel and other high-profile projects, but in addition to such public events, were less plausible case that the family prefers to keep away from its headquarters in London and hold over their less well-known branches, such as "Zurich Rothschild Bank AG "and" Rothschild Italia of Milan "- the bank of Soros partner Richard Ketsa.
According to former CIA officer familiar with the case of Soros, the "Quantum Fund" to accumulate capital (over $ 10 billion), with the help of a powerful group of "silent" investors who have allowed Soros to build capital to disrupt the financial stability in Europe in September 1992.
Soros is one of several important tools for economic and financial control "Club Islands. Because of its connection with their interests had not been previously highlighted, it serves a very useful function for the oligarchy, as in 1992 and 1993, when he began his assault on the European exchange rate mechanism.
While Soros speculation played a significant role in the final withdrawal of British Pounds from the mechanism of exchange rates, it would be wrong to consider his actions as "anti-British." Soros began his education in London, where he studied under Karl Popper and Friedrich von Hayek at the London School of Economics.
Business Soros with Sir James and Lord Goldsmitom Rotshildom approached him to circle Tetcher wing British establishment. Helping to break the UK from the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992. and has earned at more than $ 1 billion, Soros helped the long-term goal of the wing Tetcher in reducing the economic stability of continental Europe. Starting with the 1904g. This is a British geopolitical strategy - to oppose, by all means is, any economic ties between the economies of continental Europe, especially with regard to the relationship of Germany with Russia and the countries of Eastern Europe.s
The magazine "Time" described the financier George Soros as "a modern Robin Hood, who rob the rich to give to poor countries in eastern Europe and Russia. It claimed that Soros makes huge financial profits spekuliruya against the Western central banks, and uses the profits to help the postcommunist economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to help them create what he calls "Open Society."
The man who broke the Bank of England?Analysis of clandestine financial networks, Soros is vital to understand the true dimension "problem Soros in eastern Europe and other countries.
After the crisis of the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992., When the Bank of England was forced to abandon efforts to stabilize the pound sterling, from the shadow of a little financial shape, saying that he personally made a $ 1 billion in speculation against the British pound. Speculators were Hungarian origin George Soros, who wait the war in Hungary under false papers. Soros left Hungary after the war, and received U.S. citizenship after several years in London. Today, Soros is based in New York, but it says little about who he was and what he said.
After his impressive claims to possess "Midas touch", Soros has allowed public use of his name in an apparent attempt to influence the world financial markets.
Soros loudly announced in March 1993. That the price of gold should rise sharply: he said he had just received "inside information" that China is going to buy a huge kolichetvo gold for its rapidly growing economy. Soros was able to raise the demand for buying gold, which allowed prices to rise by more than 20% over four months to the highest level since 1991. And that is typical for Soros, when prostachki scrambled to buy, pushing prices higher, Soros and his friend Sir James Goldsmith secretly began selling their gold with a large profit.
Then, in early June 1993. Soros announced his intention to cause a sale of German government bonds in favor of French. In an open letter to the editor of the London "Times" Anatole Kaletskomu, Soros said "Down with the D-mark!" At various times, Soros attacked the currency of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Mexico, entering the newly opened financial markets which have little experience with foreign investors, which allows it alone, with large cash resources to manipulate the currency. Soros is beginning to market to buy assets in the local market, while the other is that naive to assume that he knows something they do not know. As in the case of gold, when the smaller investors begin to follow Soros, pushing prices up, Soros begins to sell, with its 40% or 100% profit. He then proceeds to other markets, and often, and to a new country in search of another goal for his speculations. This technique is called "hit and run."
The secret fund "Quantum Fund NV"
Soros is the visible side a vast secret network of private financial interests, managed by the leading aristocratic and royal names in Europe, centered in the British House of Windsor. The network, called its members "club Islands", was created after the collapse of the British Empire after World War II.
Instead of using the powers of the State to achieve its geopolitical objectives, has been developed by the network to stay in the private financial interests, tied to the old aristocratic oligarchy of western Europe. Center of the "Club of Islands" is the financial center - London. Soros is one of those in the Middle Ages were called - Hofjuden, "court Jews", which was deployed aristocratic families. The most important of such "Jews who are not Jews" are a Rothschild, who started his career thanks to Soros.
Soros is American only on the passport. He - the global financial operator, who happens falls in New York, simply because there is money. Soros speculates in world financial markets through its offshore company "Quantum Fund NV", a private investment fund. His hedge fund reportedly manages some $ 11-14 billion of investors' funds, the most prominent of whom, according to Soros, is the British Queen Elizabeth.
"Quantum Fund" is registered offshore in the Netherlands Antilles in the Caribbean Sea. This helps to avoid taxes and conceal the true nature of his investors and what he is doing with their money.
Soros has taken care that none of the 99 frequent investors who participate in its various funds was not an American. Under U.S. law on securities, hedge funds should not include more than 99 wealthy investors, the so-called "sophisticated investors". In creating its investment company as an offshore hedge fund, Soros avoids public research.
Soros himself is not even in the government "Quantum Fund". Legally it is an investment adviser "Quantum Fund" from another company "Soros Fund Management" in New York. In the board of directors "Quantum Fund NV" as not a single American citizen. His directors are Swiss, Italian and British financiers.
It is clear that Soros and the Rothschild chose not to show their relationship, nor does it advertise its links to London, the British Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Israel and American influential circles. Therefore, a myth, that Soros is the sole financial "genius" who through their talent detect future changes in the markets, has become one of the most successful speculators. According to those who did business with him, Soros never makes important steps without a substantial investment information on the person.
The board of directors of "Quantum Fund NV" Kets is Richard, a man Rotshilda, who is also a member of the board "London NM Rothschild" and is the head of "Rothschild Italia SpA" in Milan. Another link with the family Rotshildov is another member of the board of "Quantum Fund" Nils O'Taube partner the London investment group "St. James Place Capital", which is the main partner of Lord Rothschild.
Frequent business partner of Soros in various speculative matters, including the manipulation of the gold in 1993., It's not related to the "Quantum Fund" directly, is an Anglo-French speculator Sir James Goldsmith, a family cousin Rotshildov.
From the first days when Soros created his own investment fund in 1969. He was bound to its success to its relation to the banking network of family Rotshildov. Soros worked in New York in the 1960's in a small private bank was closely associated with the Rothschild, namely, "Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder. Inc.", Bank name, representing the interests of Rotshilda in Germany during the time of Bismarck. To this day, "A. and S. Bleichroeder. Inc." remains the primary holder, along with the "Citibank", the funds "Quantum Fund" Soros. George K. Karlvays associated with the scandalously famous "Rothschild Bank AG" in Zurich, gave Soros of seed capital and led the first investors in his "Quantum Fund".
Patronage Rothschild
The attitude of the financial terms of the Soros Rothschild is not accidental. Will make a small digression into history to explain the extraordinary success of a mere private speculator, and a strange ability to Soros "to play" so many times on these high-risk markets. Soros has access to "inside information" in some of the highest government and private offices in the world.
Since World War II, the Rothschild family tried to create a public myth about its own insignificance. The family spent substantial sums to create the image of a family of wealthy, but quiet "gentlemen", some of whom prefer to do fine French wines, some of which have dedicated themselves to philanthropy. They were involved in the creation of Israel and other high-profile projects, but in addition to such public events, were less plausible case that the family prefers to keep away from its headquarters in London and hold over their less well-known branches, such as "Zurich Rothschild Bank AG "and" Rothschild Italia of Milan "- the bank of Soros partner Richard Ketsa.
According to former CIA officer familiar with the case of Soros, the "Quantum Fund" to accumulate capital (over $ 10 billion), with the help of a powerful group of "silent" investors who have allowed Soros to build capital to disrupt the financial stability in Europe in September 1992.
Soros is one of several important tools for economic and financial control "Club Islands. Because of its connection with their interests had not been previously highlighted, it serves a very useful function for the oligarchy, as in 1992 and 1993, when he began his assault on the European exchange rate mechanism.
While Soros speculation played a significant role in the final withdrawal of British Pounds from the mechanism of exchange rates, it would be wrong to consider his actions as "anti-British." Soros began his education in London, where he studied under Karl Popper and Friedrich von Hayek at the London School of Economics.
Business Soros with Sir James and Lord Goldsmitom Rotshildom approached him to circle Tetcher wing British establishment. Helping to break the UK from the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992. and has earned at more than $ 1 billion, Soros helped the long-term goal of the wing Tetcher in reducing the economic stability of continental Europe. Starting with the 1904g. This is a British geopolitical strategy - to oppose, by all means is, any economic ties between the economies of continental Europe, especially with regard to the relationship of Germany with Russia and the countries of Eastern Europe.s
Engineering input
Many traders believe that a good reading of price charts automatically leads to a successful trade. Unfortunately, this is not the case. While the technical analysis and trading is highly interrelated, the reading of price charts do not require any capital or emotional effort. On the contrary, the real trade in the market requires both, associated with immediate risk of staying in the tough competitive environment.
Published hundreds of analysis and trade recommendations each month. But none of them will not bring the money in your pocket without good timing. This is a critical mistake to enter the market just because you saw a nice combination of graphics. The possibility arises only if you can find and implement a signal corresponding to the choice of a suitable time.
Precautionary entrance connects the gap between signal and trade. This is the door through which you assume the financial and emotional risk. There are many methods for selecting the time of entry into the market, but the three strategies are suitable for the majority of transactions with trading on the oscillations. The first is to log a certain breakthrough in the price level. The second relates to the expectation of correctional rollback after strong traffic and the entrance to the direction of motion about the support or resistance. In the third, to buy or sell should be within a narrow range before you begin the movement.
Which of these strategies will be the best sign for your next deal? Unfortunately, the correct answer will not be twice the same. Do not try to make the right entrance to the simple task of repeating. In fact, you should plan for each transaction in the context of the current market situation, the ratio of return to risk and the selected period of holding an open position. These additional conditions are a necessity, but not overly luxurious.
Let's look at these three entry strategies more carefully. After a while you understand how to select the best deal that you are going to implement. Keep in mind that several different strategies can work in the same market situation. The correct choice of strategy can provide more input to the emotional mood than the timing.
Buy on break up or sale, with breaking down is the only method of timing entry into the market, used by most traders. Unfortunately, this is also the "best" way out of the market. This technique is simple entrance. The price breaks through support or resistance level, and you go to open position. And then you pray that the price continued to move in this direction.
This is - a very dangerous way to enter the market. Trade looks great when the market moves in your direction, but what will you do if the market spread and go the other way? Surprisingly, most traders do not have a good answer to this important issue. Thus, they stiffen like the Rabbit in the boa, looking at the schedule, when faced with the cruel reality.
Persecution of the momentum may well work if the trader chooses to deal wisely and pay close attention to two important rules. First, always set your acceptable risks before trading. Choose a fixed percentage of the loss or use the graphical model in a shorter time scale for the output signal, if the market goes against you. Secondly, make sure that the broader market picture implies adequate support for your strategy.
Where do you hold? Many traders believe that they are too late, when they see that the breakthrough has already taken place. In fact, they are often too slow. It is often better to stand aside and wait to turn the market, rather than jump, along with the crowd. Sign in with corrective setback is a very powerful method because it uses the edge of the capital, who missed the first movement. But it is important to enter the market before they do, and to allow their enthusiasm to bring you profit.
Sign in with corrective setback is very sensitive to price. If possible, place an order where, as you would expect, the market will return after the break. This is actually easier than it seems. New trends frequently return to the previous level of support or resistance before going further. So, look at the pricing schedule and find the level where the initial breakthrough occurred. Corrective movements are often attracted by these important levels like magnets.
Login to the narrow range confuses many traders, but the theory is quite simple. Common sense dictates that the best time for the opening of a new position, just before the break up or down. The narrow range is characterized by low mobility, when conditions are ready for a large movement. Trader is a busy market in the price level and waits for the start of movement. The advantage of this method is that the position can be accessed with a small loss if the market breaks the other way.
Graphic model of accumulation, such as triangles, often reminiscent of Spring. This is a manifestation of the internal stress predicts strong future price movement. Traders can use classic indicators to determine the switching point for the movement. But the best option is to locate narrow range bars and reduce the amount directly to the key levels of support or resistance. Enter the market here, while others are still only prepared to pursue a breakthrough price level.
Published hundreds of analysis and trade recommendations each month. But none of them will not bring the money in your pocket without good timing. This is a critical mistake to enter the market just because you saw a nice combination of graphics. The possibility arises only if you can find and implement a signal corresponding to the choice of a suitable time.
Precautionary entrance connects the gap between signal and trade. This is the door through which you assume the financial and emotional risk. There are many methods for selecting the time of entry into the market, but the three strategies are suitable for the majority of transactions with trading on the oscillations. The first is to log a certain breakthrough in the price level. The second relates to the expectation of correctional rollback after strong traffic and the entrance to the direction of motion about the support or resistance. In the third, to buy or sell should be within a narrow range before you begin the movement.
Which of these strategies will be the best sign for your next deal? Unfortunately, the correct answer will not be twice the same. Do not try to make the right entrance to the simple task of repeating. In fact, you should plan for each transaction in the context of the current market situation, the ratio of return to risk and the selected period of holding an open position. These additional conditions are a necessity, but not overly luxurious.
Let's look at these three entry strategies more carefully. After a while you understand how to select the best deal that you are going to implement. Keep in mind that several different strategies can work in the same market situation. The correct choice of strategy can provide more input to the emotional mood than the timing.
Buy on break up or sale, with breaking down is the only method of timing entry into the market, used by most traders. Unfortunately, this is also the "best" way out of the market. This technique is simple entrance. The price breaks through support or resistance level, and you go to open position. And then you pray that the price continued to move in this direction.This is - a very dangerous way to enter the market. Trade looks great when the market moves in your direction, but what will you do if the market spread and go the other way? Surprisingly, most traders do not have a good answer to this important issue. Thus, they stiffen like the Rabbit in the boa, looking at the schedule, when faced with the cruel reality.
Persecution of the momentum may well work if the trader chooses to deal wisely and pay close attention to two important rules. First, always set your acceptable risks before trading. Choose a fixed percentage of the loss or use the graphical model in a shorter time scale for the output signal, if the market goes against you. Secondly, make sure that the broader market picture implies adequate support for your strategy.
Where do you hold? Many traders believe that they are too late, when they see that the breakthrough has already taken place. In fact, they are often too slow. It is often better to stand aside and wait to turn the market, rather than jump, along with the crowd. Sign in with corrective setback is a very powerful method because it uses the edge of the capital, who missed the first movement. But it is important to enter the market before they do, and to allow their enthusiasm to bring you profit.Sign in with corrective setback is very sensitive to price. If possible, place an order where, as you would expect, the market will return after the break. This is actually easier than it seems. New trends frequently return to the previous level of support or resistance before going further. So, look at the pricing schedule and find the level where the initial breakthrough occurred. Corrective movements are often attracted by these important levels like magnets.
Login to the narrow range confuses many traders, but the theory is quite simple. Common sense dictates that the best time for the opening of a new position, just before the break up or down. The narrow range is characterized by low mobility, when conditions are ready for a large movement. Trader is a busy market in the price level and waits for the start of movement. The advantage of this method is that the position can be accessed with a small loss if the market breaks the other way.Graphic model of accumulation, such as triangles, often reminiscent of Spring. This is a manifestation of the internal stress predicts strong future price movement. Traders can use classic indicators to determine the switching point for the movement. But the best option is to locate narrow range bars and reduce the amount directly to the key levels of support or resistance. Enter the market here, while others are still only prepared to pursue a breakthrough price level.
Interview with trader: Don Henry
Question: What has been your experience in the trade?
Don: I started to trade shares after college in the early 1970's, and sold all the running for many years. I put more emphasis on positional trade in grain, currency and make some trade-in e-mini and bond recently.
Question: What hardware do you use?
Don: I use two computers, one of which - a laptop. Both computers have dual displays. The main computer - 500 MHz, 128 MB, with 2 monitors, trading platform - Ensign Windows. Get real-time data via satellite.
Question: Tell us about your brokerage business?
Don: I've been a broker since 1986. and started with Dean Witte. I became an independent broker in 1990. I have clients in 7 or 8 states and a number of active clients abroad (Brazil). While in North Dakota, many of my clients' fixed-term contracts are traded on the livestock and grain. Fees range from $ 25 to $ 40 for full service. Full-service portfolio includes support, advice, training and explanation of technical analysis. Some clients also want to receive recommendations. Many of my clients are traded with me for 10 - 15 years.
Question: Does your favorite types of analysis and tools to which you reliance?
Don: Yes. I recommend that my clients have read 2 or 3 books. I recommend them to read books by Bill Williams Trading Chaos "and" New dimensions of trade. " I also like Joe DiNapoli book "Trading with DiNapoli levels. These books included in the list in ascending order of their complexity and involvement. Also, I recommend the "disciplined trader" Mark Douglas. My favorite tools - it is Moving averages and the old reliable index of relative strength (RSI). I use a sliding average method, which uses them, Bill Williams, including convergence / divergence of moving averages (MACD). Most of the time I have RSI in their schedules. Discipline the use of stop orders and the management of capital are key to the trade. I do not want it sounded as though I have all the answers. I am always working to improve its consistency. I admit that from time to time, I go too hot.
Question: Does your favorite image formation, which do you think?
Don: There are two formations, which I am looking for - "head and shoulders, and the model of" 1-2-3 "at the base and top. Model "1-2-3" in the ground can be described as having a 1 at the base, a strong leap up to a point 2 and No 3 to the point, but without breaking point 1. My level of purchases will be up when passing through the point 2. Basically, I traded for a breakthrough. In the model of "head and shoulders" I traded with the break through the neck and also use the model to measure the price objective of equal distance from the neck to the top of the head.
Question: What kind of drops you have learned to avoid?
Don: For many years I can see Traders who try to escape from the difficult situation, thinking that it can not become worse. But it happens. The lesson seems to be explored again and again. It concluded with us when we fight with the markets and resist what we see. The correct philosophy is to "see it, believe it and trade it." This is a mistake - to impose their own ideas on the market. Another rule that I use - I did not add to a losing position. I acknowledge that I have done so, but it is very dangerous - to attempt to averaged a losing position. Traders are often forced to leave the loss-making positions at the request of the deposit (margin call).
Question: What is an interim format you use for your charts?
Don: I primarily use ticks and schedules for all Fibonacci numbers. For example, I use 34 - and 55 - ticks graphics for e-mini, which are often converted into 3-minute bars. To market the grain, I use 13 - or 21-ticks graphics, which are often converted into 7-minute schedules. For longer periods of time I watch 30-minute charts and then convert them back into the schedule ticks closest to the Fibonacci numbers. You can get ticks by for use by exploring the volume of a 30-minute schedules about 5 different points on average per day. If the 30-minute bars volume will be an average of 150 ticks, I would use 144-ticks schedule as his long-time period for the schedule.
The first thing I do every morning - I look at their daily and weekly charts to get a big picture. I like to trade towards a greater time period such as 144 - or 233-teak schedule. I traded on the schedule with a shorter period of time, but only in the direction of the schedule with the next big format.
Question: How often do you sell?
Don: With intra-day trading on the e-mini, and I'm trying to reduce their transaction. But I still sold 10 - 20 times a day for 55 ticks schedule. My main instruments - is Moving averages, MACD and RSI. I have a feed, using a sliding average as the maximum and the Moving Average as a minimum. I use a sliding average, like Alligator, described in the book Williams. I'm using longer Moving averages, for example, with the parameters 21 and 55 for high and low channels, because the volatility in these markets has increased. I also hold a 200-periodnuyu Moving averages at all time formats that focus on the direction of the market.
Question: What constitutes a successful sale for you?
Don: When you trade on the e-mini, I try to stay in the market and use of a mobile stop-order. One rule that I use - it is after the 10-point gains, I fixed portion of the profits. The same principle is used and with the grain. I, first, try to capture some profits and, secondly, I'm trying to market to move, giving him some space.
Question: What are the market conditions you're looking for?
Don: I love the trend markets, but markets are in a trend, only 30% of the time, and variable - 70% of the time. I would only be a trend in the markets, but it is difficult to predict when a trend. I love the Elliott Wave count in order to find 1-2-3-4-5 Elliott model and be on board during the 3rd movement of waves. I generally avoid the bottom and tops, but I like to trade in the 3rd wave. Although it is sometimes difficult to find what I am looking for. I do not like to be in the market during a speech by Mr. Greenspan. I prefer to stay out of the game, when the markets are subject to considerable variability.
Question: Do you use any risk management and money management techniques?
Don: I must emphasize the use of stop orders. If you can not find an acceptable level for the stop-order, taking into account your tolerance for risk, then miss a bargain. Do not risk more than 2 - 3% of your trading capital in any one transaction.
Q: What advice can you give to beginners?
Don: My advice is to go very slowly and make small changes. Pay attention to profitability. If there is a high yield, it means that there is a high risk. Start with low-income and low-risk market-based instruments, which have high liquidity. Before we begin the real trade potreniruytes for educational accounts. If you feel that you can make money on the market, selling educational accounts, you start to trade on the real small amounts.
Question: Any comment on the brokers or the execution of warrants?
Don: Most brokers are very executive. Anyone can have problems at any time. We have an active market, use electronics, and problems can happen when we do not want. But this is only a part of this business, because it is becoming increasingly high-tech. Thinking that to be faster at a fraction of a second is better, we only fool ourselves. In general, if I wait a second or two longer, then I get a better price. So, ultimately, there is no sense to try to be a few seconds faster.
Question: Do you use a mechanical trading system?
Don: No, I never used a mechanical system. I use technical analysis tools, but still want to add their own sense and feeling of the market. All mechanical systems, seems to work only part time and I have never been inclined to throw money at something mechanical black box that is often advertised. I have read over 30 books on sale, but have not yet visited any of the seminar on Trade.
Don: I started to trade shares after college in the early 1970's, and sold all the running for many years. I put more emphasis on positional trade in grain, currency and make some trade-in e-mini and bond recently.
Question: What hardware do you use?
Don: I use two computers, one of which - a laptop. Both computers have dual displays. The main computer - 500 MHz, 128 MB, with 2 monitors, trading platform - Ensign Windows. Get real-time data via satellite.
Question: Tell us about your brokerage business?
Don: I've been a broker since 1986. and started with Dean Witte. I became an independent broker in 1990. I have clients in 7 or 8 states and a number of active clients abroad (Brazil). While in North Dakota, many of my clients' fixed-term contracts are traded on the livestock and grain. Fees range from $ 25 to $ 40 for full service. Full-service portfolio includes support, advice, training and explanation of technical analysis. Some clients also want to receive recommendations. Many of my clients are traded with me for 10 - 15 years.
Question: Does your favorite types of analysis and tools to which you reliance?
Don: Yes. I recommend that my clients have read 2 or 3 books. I recommend them to read books by Bill Williams Trading Chaos "and" New dimensions of trade. " I also like Joe DiNapoli book "Trading with DiNapoli levels. These books included in the list in ascending order of their complexity and involvement. Also, I recommend the "disciplined trader" Mark Douglas. My favorite tools - it is Moving averages and the old reliable index of relative strength (RSI). I use a sliding average method, which uses them, Bill Williams, including convergence / divergence of moving averages (MACD). Most of the time I have RSI in their schedules. Discipline the use of stop orders and the management of capital are key to the trade. I do not want it sounded as though I have all the answers. I am always working to improve its consistency. I admit that from time to time, I go too hot.
Question: Does your favorite image formation, which do you think?
Don: There are two formations, which I am looking for - "head and shoulders, and the model of" 1-2-3 "at the base and top. Model "1-2-3" in the ground can be described as having a 1 at the base, a strong leap up to a point 2 and No 3 to the point, but without breaking point 1. My level of purchases will be up when passing through the point 2. Basically, I traded for a breakthrough. In the model of "head and shoulders" I traded with the break through the neck and also use the model to measure the price objective of equal distance from the neck to the top of the head.
Question: What kind of drops you have learned to avoid?
Don: For many years I can see Traders who try to escape from the difficult situation, thinking that it can not become worse. But it happens. The lesson seems to be explored again and again. It concluded with us when we fight with the markets and resist what we see. The correct philosophy is to "see it, believe it and trade it." This is a mistake - to impose their own ideas on the market. Another rule that I use - I did not add to a losing position. I acknowledge that I have done so, but it is very dangerous - to attempt to averaged a losing position. Traders are often forced to leave the loss-making positions at the request of the deposit (margin call).
Question: What is an interim format you use for your charts?
Don: I primarily use ticks and schedules for all Fibonacci numbers. For example, I use 34 - and 55 - ticks graphics for e-mini, which are often converted into 3-minute bars. To market the grain, I use 13 - or 21-ticks graphics, which are often converted into 7-minute schedules. For longer periods of time I watch 30-minute charts and then convert them back into the schedule ticks closest to the Fibonacci numbers. You can get ticks by for use by exploring the volume of a 30-minute schedules about 5 different points on average per day. If the 30-minute bars volume will be an average of 150 ticks, I would use 144-ticks schedule as his long-time period for the schedule.
The first thing I do every morning - I look at their daily and weekly charts to get a big picture. I like to trade towards a greater time period such as 144 - or 233-teak schedule. I traded on the schedule with a shorter period of time, but only in the direction of the schedule with the next big format.Question: How often do you sell?
Don: With intra-day trading on the e-mini, and I'm trying to reduce their transaction. But I still sold 10 - 20 times a day for 55 ticks schedule. My main instruments - is Moving averages, MACD and RSI. I have a feed, using a sliding average as the maximum and the Moving Average as a minimum. I use a sliding average, like Alligator, described in the book Williams. I'm using longer Moving averages, for example, with the parameters 21 and 55 for high and low channels, because the volatility in these markets has increased. I also hold a 200-periodnuyu Moving averages at all time formats that focus on the direction of the market.
Question: What constitutes a successful sale for you?
Don: When you trade on the e-mini, I try to stay in the market and use of a mobile stop-order. One rule that I use - it is after the 10-point gains, I fixed portion of the profits. The same principle is used and with the grain. I, first, try to capture some profits and, secondly, I'm trying to market to move, giving him some space.
Question: What are the market conditions you're looking for?
Don: I love the trend markets, but markets are in a trend, only 30% of the time, and variable - 70% of the time. I would only be a trend in the markets, but it is difficult to predict when a trend. I love the Elliott Wave count in order to find 1-2-3-4-5 Elliott model and be on board during the 3rd movement of waves. I generally avoid the bottom and tops, but I like to trade in the 3rd wave. Although it is sometimes difficult to find what I am looking for. I do not like to be in the market during a speech by Mr. Greenspan. I prefer to stay out of the game, when the markets are subject to considerable variability.
Question: Do you use any risk management and money management techniques?
Don: I must emphasize the use of stop orders. If you can not find an acceptable level for the stop-order, taking into account your tolerance for risk, then miss a bargain. Do not risk more than 2 - 3% of your trading capital in any one transaction.
Q: What advice can you give to beginners?
Don: My advice is to go very slowly and make small changes. Pay attention to profitability. If there is a high yield, it means that there is a high risk. Start with low-income and low-risk market-based instruments, which have high liquidity. Before we begin the real trade potreniruytes for educational accounts. If you feel that you can make money on the market, selling educational accounts, you start to trade on the real small amounts.
Question: Any comment on the brokers or the execution of warrants?
Don: Most brokers are very executive. Anyone can have problems at any time. We have an active market, use electronics, and problems can happen when we do not want. But this is only a part of this business, because it is becoming increasingly high-tech. Thinking that to be faster at a fraction of a second is better, we only fool ourselves. In general, if I wait a second or two longer, then I get a better price. So, ultimately, there is no sense to try to be a few seconds faster.
Question: Do you use a mechanical trading system?
Don: No, I never used a mechanical system. I use technical analysis tools, but still want to add their own sense and feeling of the market. All mechanical systems, seems to work only part time and I have never been inclined to throw money at something mechanical black box that is often advertised. I have read over 30 books on sale, but have not yet visited any of the seminar on Trade.
Dow and Elliott Waves
HARD Right Edge Theory Dow has more than 100 years. So, the idea that Charlie Dow have to offer modern traders?
One of the most powerful concepts in the Dow is three - wave principle. A decade later, after the Dow wrote about this principle, RN Elliott has created its unique Elliott wave theory. So, let's try to combine their work and see what they wrote decades ago.
Three waves Dow had been built on the concept of the primary trend. We all know what Charlie said here. The primary trend (or the main trend) - the main market area for several years. Through him, we define, we are in bull or bear market. Dow determined that the primary trend, looking at long-term price patterns and seeing the obvious.Elliott used his five - wave trend to reach the same conclusions. He noted that the primary trend is composed of three waves, moving in the direction and two waves moving against it. In addition, each primary wave consists of a smaller wave structure, which shows the true nature of price direction. For example, Elliott said that the failure peretekanie show some waves within this fractal structure and cause Facing the trend.
According to Dow theory, the market tend to have higher peaks and higher reduction, shows a primary bull trend. On the contrary, the market, marking the lower peaks and lower reduction, shows the primary bearish trend. Elliott did not have any problems with this approach, but he added a few of their own refinements. For example, he pointed out, as some stages of the primary trend showed a very limited opposing waves and rarely updated, yet complete set of waves has not been completed.
Three - the principles of the wave becomes more interesting when Dow and Elliott describe the typical behavior of crowds in each of these waves. Let's explore them through the bull market cycle.The first wave is the purchase of undervalued assets patient investors who expect better economic conditions and long-term growth. This happens at the very time when the crowd showed their most pessimistic mood, but experts reassure all stay out of the financial markets. Investors in undervalued assets are coming out of stupor and realize that prevailing in the markets of apathy hides the nascent recovery. They insist to buy from vendors are concerned and provide a viable base.
Elliott noted that the first wave shows very gradual improvement in price and often back to test lower levels. He also pointed out that this wave requires a lot of time to complete and provides a true bottom of the graph. A positive factor is that the market will eventually cause the momentum, enough to push prices to much higher levels.
Bull confidence begins to rise during the second wave of Dow. Improved corporate earnings, generate employment and unexpected innovation characterize this mid-wide bovine movement. More and more investors are now included in the market because they see better times ahead and want to participate. They form a good portfolio and begin to follow the markets with great interest.Elliott sees this wave as the most reliable stage bovine full cycle. Price movement is advancing rapidly, with fewer overlaps with the day to day. Small GEPy appear between the bars, as investors buy high and hope to sell even higher. The sharp increase often GEO straight in the middle of the waves, when an explosion of enthusiasm creates a wide GEO continuing. This is a very strong movement frequently points to the exact middle of the full three - wave scenario.
Signs of danger are increasing during the third wave of Dow, but they are difficult to take into account because of the extremely azhiotazhnoy market situation. Record earnings and full employment encouraged the media to declare unlimited economic prospects. The public forgets about its losses during the recent Bear cycle. Purchases are becoming more azhiotazhny nature. At this very moment, investors who bought at the base are starting to record profits and unload their positions in the hands of thirsty public. The market will eventually exhaust its possibilities, and noted the long-term top.
The last wave of Elliott can show a parabolic spike, or the rejection of the movement before it starts. This points to the danger faced by the public when the market is at peak strength. Elliott noted that the large-scale Facing of this latest wave can be very deep and painful. As we now know from personal experience, these quick sales are common deficiencies in all bull cycles.
Valery Syutkin: The first money earned illegally
How do you feel about the concept of "money"?Nikita Mikhalkov said: "Of all the arts for us the most important thing is to get money." I would add that the greatest art - the money to spend, it is very hard, harder than earning money.
And learn how to properly spend the money?
For me personally, there are two basic formulas with money. First, with the money necessary to give up without moaning. " We love to enjoy life and have to pay for the pleasure and we should be aware. In doing so, we should not think about money, or no fun, actually, and not work. And secondly - priorities. I am very easy to part with money, but I have spent their principles. Received the money should be divided: that is necessary to spend it - on the separation. Then it's easy.
While earning enough to last for fun?
Financial genius - this is the kind of person who can earn more than his wife can spend. I do not know of, no. I just became a professional and exploit their profession. It allows me to any economic situation, find a niche and does not remain empty-handed.
A business is not thought to address?
No, I deposit a businessman, I have some grip, but big business, it requires great knowledge, composure, and ... not really mine. And then this fact must be dealt himself. So is not the case, that gave the money people put in his place, and they you have done and bring profit. At best, the return is not all due to your earnings, and in the worst case, will say that everything just collapsed. We must learn to control everything himself. Here's a creative business - it is about me. I'm interested in, not poor, and for the moment all I am satisfied.
How do you feel about this "American" history, when people from the very beginning makes a fortune?
I do not belong to it. I belong to people who are 20 years lupili "at one point and did not earn more than his salary. The greater part of my life, I lived in the Soviet country, where everything was "pribito for nails, and your destiny, all was clear until the end of life: school, institute, an engineer and so on. Talked about money in one word: "not enough" and "give a loan to pay." I am still doing my love and Soviet traditions still dream of earning. I'm not evil, but the feeling that you can relax and do not jerk, "I do not attend, I still dream.
When you've earned their first money?
That was 73 years, somewhere between 7 th and 8 th grade. In fact, illegally took me to the store "light" on the street. Solyanka, for the summer, the place to go to leave the seller. I earn in one month Fair 90 rubles, which bought his first drum, which later I get a lot more. And from that moment, I never sat on the neck of the parents.
And you zaviduete people kotorve earn more than you?
White envy envy when I see that the people of their efforts is seeking something bigger than me. And then, I'm not jealous, but equal to it, I want to do something better in their situation. People are earning lot of money - people with talent and power of thought. Business - it is hard work, requiring great effort. There can be jealousy, but respect.
Is it easy to earn money in Russia?
Not more difficult than in Europe. There is still a niche, but rather at the secondary level, where you can earn, at a high level, probably has not. Although ... if a person is talented, literacy, it is quite possible that all will turn out. I've been endowed with a talent for communication, someone has the talent to turn 1 in the ruble of a hundred dollars. Only in the way! And the situation is now such a fragile, that money can not keep with them, you must kudanibud they invest.
And where would you recommend to invest?
I can recommend only one to have a profession, to believe in yourself and work! If you love something, than doing - it is ideal! The biggest value - it is time to hold it must be interesting, and, eventually, the money provides only a possibility. Still need to understand the true value of things, I, for example, never buy a madly expensive car, if I'm not using it, and we, the Russians have a very characteristic feature - show off.
You lucky man?
In the life of me lucky. Right now, for example, I have a wonderful mood, I have a wonderful wife, a young, fervently loving my little daughter - this is the most important, and the rest - things. (Pauza.) ... But the money needed, so I stick!
So then did little luck?
In addition to luck, you need to learn to do everything very well, professionally, with talent, then all the money earned, and you just reach. If you'll stand the professionalism of the situation, then all will turn out. But this need to learn, one must work hard, have a goal, talent. Do all quality, with dignity, then come and be themselves. I know this from experience.
Ashraf Laidi. Are Euro for the next rocket?
The combination is expected raise rates from the Federal Reserve and the weaker-than-expected report on the payroll for the month of June in the U.S., the Euro has given vital impetus to improve. Breaking the 18-week trend line resistance above $ 1.22, EUR is positioned to further strengthen to the $ 1.2480-00 area in mid-summer. The June FOMC meeting behind us and the next FOMC meeting in a month. Euro receive its share of optimism and panic as the output of American and European data, as well as statements by Fed officials, for svyaschayuschih markets in the past thought "policy-meykerov" for the future of their policies.
Although there is a strong chance to see $ 1.25, we expect that the euro will face at least one obstacle in the month, which will send it back to $ 1.2370 by the end of the month. This obstacle could be the result of strong consumer price index in the U.S. this month, or any other event which could give the credibility of a possible raise rates by 50 basis points at the August meeting, FOMC.
Indeed, FOMC made it clear at its meeting in June that it intends to follow a balanced policy with regard to the tightening of rates, ie with a minimum increase of 25 points. But the Committee, at the same time, keeping the door open for more aggressive steps in its policies when it stated that it would "respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability." Probability of "yastrebinyh" statements by the representatives of the Federal Reserve remains significant, especially if the yield on Treasury bonds continue to decline, and will require incentives that might be too generous to the Central Bank. Although the 10-year Treasury securities reached 10-week minimum, we have seen many times this year, a strong record as one way to increase profitability, at least 20 points in 2 days. A decline in the Euro remains equally possible.
On the European front, rising inflation and improved figures for the business - the climate attracted further attention of traders, given the possibility of tighter monetary policy in September. After inflation jumped to 2.5% in May from 2.0% in April, the estimates for June converge at 2.4%, suggesting that the trend of price increases may last longer than expected. In the June decision by the policies of the European Central Bank hinted that price pressures may not only occur in the medium term, but could also continue in the longer term, being much above the level of 2.0% as oil prices remain high and the strength of global economic dynamism can continue to put pressure on prices of goods, including the price of oil.
Although data on the consumption and retail sales remain fragmentary, reviews the business climate showed gradual improvement, supported by Managers Index on purchasing, manufacturing and service sector, which expanded to 10 and 12, respectively. In addition, an overview of the German ZEW rose in June, violating the 5-month-lane drop. As soon as the Federal Reserve will make its second rate increase in August, would be unlikely that the ECB would allow the Federal Reserve to make the third increase in September without taking any action, as well as the continuation of price pressure in the U.S. definitely transferred the euro - far beyond the comfort level of inflation at 2.00 %.
Broke above 18-week trend line, euro accumulated technical capacity to move to follow the objectives, namely, the $ 1.2450-00, which limited the level of recovery in 61.8% of the movement of $ 1.2926-1.1759. But we feel that the inevitable setback caused by the fundamental data to prevent net increase for this purpose and will consolidate in the area of $ 1.24-25.
Although there is a strong chance to see $ 1.25, we expect that the euro will face at least one obstacle in the month, which will send it back to $ 1.2370 by the end of the month. This obstacle could be the result of strong consumer price index in the U.S. this month, or any other event which could give the credibility of a possible raise rates by 50 basis points at the August meeting, FOMC.
Indeed, FOMC made it clear at its meeting in June that it intends to follow a balanced policy with regard to the tightening of rates, ie with a minimum increase of 25 points. But the Committee, at the same time, keeping the door open for more aggressive steps in its policies when it stated that it would "respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability." Probability of "yastrebinyh" statements by the representatives of the Federal Reserve remains significant, especially if the yield on Treasury bonds continue to decline, and will require incentives that might be too generous to the Central Bank. Although the 10-year Treasury securities reached 10-week minimum, we have seen many times this year, a strong record as one way to increase profitability, at least 20 points in 2 days. A decline in the Euro remains equally possible.On the European front, rising inflation and improved figures for the business - the climate attracted further attention of traders, given the possibility of tighter monetary policy in September. After inflation jumped to 2.5% in May from 2.0% in April, the estimates for June converge at 2.4%, suggesting that the trend of price increases may last longer than expected. In the June decision by the policies of the European Central Bank hinted that price pressures may not only occur in the medium term, but could also continue in the longer term, being much above the level of 2.0% as oil prices remain high and the strength of global economic dynamism can continue to put pressure on prices of goods, including the price of oil.
Although data on the consumption and retail sales remain fragmentary, reviews the business climate showed gradual improvement, supported by Managers Index on purchasing, manufacturing and service sector, which expanded to 10 and 12, respectively. In addition, an overview of the German ZEW rose in June, violating the 5-month-lane drop. As soon as the Federal Reserve will make its second rate increase in August, would be unlikely that the ECB would allow the Federal Reserve to make the third increase in September without taking any action, as well as the continuation of price pressure in the U.S. definitely transferred the euro - far beyond the comfort level of inflation at 2.00 %.
Broke above 18-week trend line, euro accumulated technical capacity to move to follow the objectives, namely, the $ 1.2450-00, which limited the level of recovery in 61.8% of the movement of $ 1.2926-1.1759. But we feel that the inevitable setback caused by the fundamental data to prevent net increase for this purpose and will consolidate in the area of $ 1.24-25.
Interview with trader: Robert Rose
When you start trading?
I opened my first account in the U.S. in early 1998. and sold U.S. equities. I tried every technique, from skalpirovaniya pulse (more than 40 transactions a day) to the cutting of spread (very quiet trade) and trade on the movement. All, however, especially without much success, because it was one thing that I did not understand. Trade - this is business, not the game! I see it exactly the same as racing. Shares do not involve me more and I switched to trade in futures. For the first time I faced the risks of futures markets. I have followed completely the wrong strategy for the management positions, and therefore lost a lot of money. I decided that something must change and become read some books. After some time I began to understand that the philosophers' stone in the trade and is found in me the most. I was the one responsible for everything. I finally understood that trade - a business and it starts with a small but steady profits. Just at that time I met with the two dealers, which allowed me to work with them. This led to my breakthrough in 1999. Since I work full time as a freelance trader with various brokerage houses.
When the trade has become your main work?
In its twenty-I was still relatively young, and my routine after coming out of school include the immediate tracking American markets. It was not time for the German market. This, coupled with the lack of professional platform for the German market was the reason why I switched to the U.S. market. With the great success that I enjoyed in previous years, I left school in October 2001., Rather than the economic degree to concentrate on trade.
How much time per day do you spend per trade?
At present, not so much because I have committed positional deal (6 hours). Much of their time I spend on research and management of trade.
How much time is necessary to develop a trading system, and psychological aspects of a business plan for the trade?
It is - daily work, and I have constantly thought of new strategies and management practices.
How would you rate your knowledge of the markets? I refer to your knowledge of mechanics of trading as the market moves as effective to place transactions, and what trading tools are needed?
I think that I have extensive knowledge of markets. However, from time to time that happens, something new, slightly alter my attitude to trade. It does not happen suddenly, but rather is a gradual increase in the understanding of (evolutionary steps Trader).
What are your psychological strengths and weaknesses, particularly in the development of trading systems?
My weakness, almost certainly, is my tendency to chaos. Different ways, I must strive for higher order. Fortunately, this applies to my time away from trading. My strengths lie in my patience and the necessary discipline. There are so many things that are frustrating me. This is especially important during difficult periods or unwanted developments. I rarely get out of yourself and try to keep everything under control. But I was not always so disciplined. Especially in the beginning I felt a lot of unnecessary losses and saw trade as a sort of game - an error that costs me a lot of money. Only after I began to treat the trade as a business, my trading has become more efficient and structured.
What are your advantages in trade and the special trade of creating these benefits?
The advantage of my trade is in a consistent risk management. Not only that I know of the existence of risk, I also fully explored them from before. I keep risks to a minimum possible level. In trade, I never risk more than 2% of capital (with positional trade), and this is the highest level. The average risk for me - generally less than 1%. Open positions increased only when they are in profit. This method allows to achieve a better return to risk ratio. Since the trade position is to speculate on the trend spread, the ratio of return to risk is more effective because you can immediately recognize whether a change of trend.
Suppose you have a very effective trading system, with 50% th level gains, which allows twice the loss of profit, and you, however, suffered 10 failures in succession, you could survive with this?
I have had 17 consecutive loss-making transactions. This is not vybilo my gauge.
What is the expected profit from your trading capital in the year?
My expected return of about 20-40%. If I reach 20%, ie some decline in certain boundaries, I will increase the level of risk. On the other hand, if my income is too high, then I know what I am, almost certainly took too much risk.
With what potential risks you face in order to reach your level of profit?
Half of the winnings, approximately 20% per year.
What is the maximum loss that you are willing to take?
Approximately 25%.
How do you recognize whether your successful trading plan or not? What are your expectations of your systems in different markets? Trends? Consolidation? The high variability?
Each transaction is scheduled precisely. I always know what I should do, and therefore should not consider the options in the trade. All the scenarios are played before the open position and if a situation arises in which I was not ready, then I know that something was wrong with my plan and I am therefore looking for their mistakes. Since I am not tied to just one market, rather I have a range of different and unrelated markets, I always find a bargain, which I am interested.
What clients do you prefer?
I prefer clients who have some knowledge of markets, who knows that the decline in trade is inevitable, and who will not suddenly panic. The client must be patient and able to assess market risks.
Who are your customers? What are your goals? What services do you offer your customers? Your customers, for example, tend to diversify when you entrust your money?
Currently, I am wealthy private investors, however, my trading history is connected with institutional investors and when there is a good opportunity, they transfer me to new investors. The client requires some diversification, which seemed to them a variety of markets and trading strategies.
You are trading money for its customers: what risks they take? When they take their money?
My clients are ready to take the risk of 12-15%, however, with losses of 20%, they collect their money.
What should you make a profit for its customers to earn their admiration?
Customer covers euphoria with profits of more than 35%, and always difficult to achieve such results in the following year with the same risk parameters.
What is your fee? How much is deducted in a month or a year from the customer's account? And how high must be a profit to the client still remains happy despite these payments?
There are currently paid for the work of 25%, but there is no fee for the administration. Since there is only paid for the work, the money paid only from profits. This is effective on a monthly basis. Profit should be in the region of 27-30%, so that the client had income 20%. As long as these profits are achieved, the client is willing to pay a fee.
How high your trading opportunities? How do you achieve this? What do you do once it is achieved? Whether it is your trade?
Trading opportunities are approximately 100 million Euro. In the event of further increases in capital, the existing fund will be closed and will open a new fund. What's the worst that can happen in your relationships with customers, and what you do to avoid this?
The worst - it damages more than 20% of which were fatal, and to avoid this, I keep risks at a very low level.
What do you do in the event of a large income or capital, on the contrary, his retirement?
Deposits of up to 100 million dollars does not represent any problem. Large seizures do not pose a threat to the trading system, simply reduced trading volume.
Which markets do you sell? They are susceptible to specialization? Sell only on the liquidity, or also to the low liquidity of markets?
The portfolio consists of currency and stocks, which are regularly traded. There is no specialization in one market. Each of these markets are very liquid, the requirement for risk management is carried out, because you can work with very close stop-orders. At low liquid markets may be problems with the precise execution of orders.
As regarding the entrance into the market and how is it important?
Entrance to the market is only a small part of overall strategy. If I concentrate all their energies only on the point of entry, I have already lost. Much more important - this is a professional money management and risk, as well as overall management of commercial business. Entry point is almost insignificant.
What are the initial levels of stop-orders are you using? If they work, you quickly re-enter the market in order to use the slightest market movement?
Typically, no more than 1% of capital at the level of risk for foreign exchange transactions. Since the shares are slightly higher - 1.5%. If my stop-order and worked, this means that a change in trend has not yet happened and so I look forward to a new signal input. I re-enter the market, only if you receive a different signal, which indicated a change of trend.
How do you plan to profit zone - different levels for the stop orders, and its goal of profit? Contrary to the normal view, to whether you need to put more emphasis on the method of entry and stop orders?
I do not limit their profits if the market moves in my direction, I quickly increase its position to profit from such traffic. Naturally, there are always concerns about how far the market will move. Despite this, I do not limit their profits. My stop-order and placed in line with the graphic techniques and, depending on market volatility. When my stop-order and worked, trade is completed.
What are you doing for the management of money?
As I said, in the currency markets, I risk a maximum of 1% of the commercial capital, and with the shares - 1.5%. Stop orders are not permanently mounted on 1% of the commercial capital. It is very important. Stop orders are calculated according to the graphical techniques used in combination with the volatility of the market. When I know the value, I calculate the amount of the position according to the maximum risk.
I opened my first account in the U.S. in early 1998. and sold U.S. equities. I tried every technique, from skalpirovaniya pulse (more than 40 transactions a day) to the cutting of spread (very quiet trade) and trade on the movement. All, however, especially without much success, because it was one thing that I did not understand. Trade - this is business, not the game! I see it exactly the same as racing. Shares do not involve me more and I switched to trade in futures. For the first time I faced the risks of futures markets. I have followed completely the wrong strategy for the management positions, and therefore lost a lot of money. I decided that something must change and become read some books. After some time I began to understand that the philosophers' stone in the trade and is found in me the most. I was the one responsible for everything. I finally understood that trade - a business and it starts with a small but steady profits. Just at that time I met with the two dealers, which allowed me to work with them. This led to my breakthrough in 1999. Since I work full time as a freelance trader with various brokerage houses.
When the trade has become your main work?
In its twenty-I was still relatively young, and my routine after coming out of school include the immediate tracking American markets. It was not time for the German market. This, coupled with the lack of professional platform for the German market was the reason why I switched to the U.S. market. With the great success that I enjoyed in previous years, I left school in October 2001., Rather than the economic degree to concentrate on trade.
How much time per day do you spend per trade?
At present, not so much because I have committed positional deal (6 hours). Much of their time I spend on research and management of trade.
How much time is necessary to develop a trading system, and psychological aspects of a business plan for the trade?
It is - daily work, and I have constantly thought of new strategies and management practices.
How would you rate your knowledge of the markets? I refer to your knowledge of mechanics of trading as the market moves as effective to place transactions, and what trading tools are needed?
I think that I have extensive knowledge of markets. However, from time to time that happens, something new, slightly alter my attitude to trade. It does not happen suddenly, but rather is a gradual increase in the understanding of (evolutionary steps Trader).
What are your psychological strengths and weaknesses, particularly in the development of trading systems?
My weakness, almost certainly, is my tendency to chaos. Different ways, I must strive for higher order. Fortunately, this applies to my time away from trading. My strengths lie in my patience and the necessary discipline. There are so many things that are frustrating me. This is especially important during difficult periods or unwanted developments. I rarely get out of yourself and try to keep everything under control. But I was not always so disciplined. Especially in the beginning I felt a lot of unnecessary losses and saw trade as a sort of game - an error that costs me a lot of money. Only after I began to treat the trade as a business, my trading has become more efficient and structured.
What are your advantages in trade and the special trade of creating these benefits?
The advantage of my trade is in a consistent risk management. Not only that I know of the existence of risk, I also fully explored them from before. I keep risks to a minimum possible level. In trade, I never risk more than 2% of capital (with positional trade), and this is the highest level. The average risk for me - generally less than 1%. Open positions increased only when they are in profit. This method allows to achieve a better return to risk ratio. Since the trade position is to speculate on the trend spread, the ratio of return to risk is more effective because you can immediately recognize whether a change of trend.
Suppose you have a very effective trading system, with 50% th level gains, which allows twice the loss of profit, and you, however, suffered 10 failures in succession, you could survive with this?
I have had 17 consecutive loss-making transactions. This is not vybilo my gauge.
What is the expected profit from your trading capital in the year?
My expected return of about 20-40%. If I reach 20%, ie some decline in certain boundaries, I will increase the level of risk. On the other hand, if my income is too high, then I know what I am, almost certainly took too much risk.
With what potential risks you face in order to reach your level of profit?
Half of the winnings, approximately 20% per year.
What is the maximum loss that you are willing to take?
Approximately 25%.
How do you recognize whether your successful trading plan or not? What are your expectations of your systems in different markets? Trends? Consolidation? The high variability?
Each transaction is scheduled precisely. I always know what I should do, and therefore should not consider the options in the trade. All the scenarios are played before the open position and if a situation arises in which I was not ready, then I know that something was wrong with my plan and I am therefore looking for their mistakes. Since I am not tied to just one market, rather I have a range of different and unrelated markets, I always find a bargain, which I am interested.
What clients do you prefer?
I prefer clients who have some knowledge of markets, who knows that the decline in trade is inevitable, and who will not suddenly panic. The client must be patient and able to assess market risks.
Who are your customers? What are your goals? What services do you offer your customers? Your customers, for example, tend to diversify when you entrust your money?
Currently, I am wealthy private investors, however, my trading history is connected with institutional investors and when there is a good opportunity, they transfer me to new investors. The client requires some diversification, which seemed to them a variety of markets and trading strategies.
You are trading money for its customers: what risks they take? When they take their money?
My clients are ready to take the risk of 12-15%, however, with losses of 20%, they collect their money.
What should you make a profit for its customers to earn their admiration?
Customer covers euphoria with profits of more than 35%, and always difficult to achieve such results in the following year with the same risk parameters.
What is your fee? How much is deducted in a month or a year from the customer's account? And how high must be a profit to the client still remains happy despite these payments?
There are currently paid for the work of 25%, but there is no fee for the administration. Since there is only paid for the work, the money paid only from profits. This is effective on a monthly basis. Profit should be in the region of 27-30%, so that the client had income 20%. As long as these profits are achieved, the client is willing to pay a fee.
How high your trading opportunities? How do you achieve this? What do you do once it is achieved? Whether it is your trade?
Trading opportunities are approximately 100 million Euro. In the event of further increases in capital, the existing fund will be closed and will open a new fund. What's the worst that can happen in your relationships with customers, and what you do to avoid this?
The worst - it damages more than 20% of which were fatal, and to avoid this, I keep risks at a very low level.
What do you do in the event of a large income or capital, on the contrary, his retirement?
Deposits of up to 100 million dollars does not represent any problem. Large seizures do not pose a threat to the trading system, simply reduced trading volume.
Which markets do you sell? They are susceptible to specialization? Sell only on the liquidity, or also to the low liquidity of markets?
The portfolio consists of currency and stocks, which are regularly traded. There is no specialization in one market. Each of these markets are very liquid, the requirement for risk management is carried out, because you can work with very close stop-orders. At low liquid markets may be problems with the precise execution of orders.
As regarding the entrance into the market and how is it important?
Entrance to the market is only a small part of overall strategy. If I concentrate all their energies only on the point of entry, I have already lost. Much more important - this is a professional money management and risk, as well as overall management of commercial business. Entry point is almost insignificant.
What are the initial levels of stop-orders are you using? If they work, you quickly re-enter the market in order to use the slightest market movement?
Typically, no more than 1% of capital at the level of risk for foreign exchange transactions. Since the shares are slightly higher - 1.5%. If my stop-order and worked, this means that a change in trend has not yet happened and so I look forward to a new signal input. I re-enter the market, only if you receive a different signal, which indicated a change of trend.
How do you plan to profit zone - different levels for the stop orders, and its goal of profit? Contrary to the normal view, to whether you need to put more emphasis on the method of entry and stop orders?
I do not limit their profits if the market moves in my direction, I quickly increase its position to profit from such traffic. Naturally, there are always concerns about how far the market will move. Despite this, I do not limit their profits. My stop-order and placed in line with the graphic techniques and, depending on market volatility. When my stop-order and worked, trade is completed.
What are you doing for the management of money?
As I said, in the currency markets, I risk a maximum of 1% of the commercial capital, and with the shares - 1.5%. Stop orders are not permanently mounted on 1% of the commercial capital. It is very important. Stop orders are calculated according to the graphical techniques used in combination with the volatility of the market. When I know the value, I calculate the amount of the position according to the maximum risk.
Butterfly Effect
When traders hear about the Elliott Wave, they are usually at the same time hear about Fibonacci relationships. Just the reverse is also true. When discussing the Fibonacci ratio, it is almost always in the context of Elliott waves, or measurement of some recovery. However, I would like to propose the use of Fibonacci ratios to any graphical model. In this article, will be presented a graphical model, which is seldom discussed among traders - Butterfly Gartli.
JM Gartli published the book "The profit on the stock exchange in 1935. In this book, he refers to the graphical model, which can be confused with the well-known Elliott Wave. There are similarities, but it is - not the same model. Where in the Elliott Wave uses the numerical designation for the pulse waves and letters to the rehabilitative model Gartli only uses the letter to the central or turning points in the model. This is just one of the differences that can be seen immediately, but there are many others. Therefore, traders who use Elliott waves, may be somewhat confused model Butterflies Gartli. Therefore, it may be useful to take the material presented here, such as it is, rather than to compare two models with each other. There are several varieties of butterflies models, but this article will discuss only one variety.
In the above diagram, we see a common model of butterflies Gartli. At first glance it may look very strange. However, to begin I will explain the model and then show a graphic example. Black lines in the model of butterflies represent the price movement of market instruments. Thus, in Figure 1, we can see that the price movement occurs from point X to point A. Then, we have a downward fluctuation to a point B, which is not beyond the point X. This is accompanied by a movement to point C, which does not exceed the point A. Finally, the butterfly ends of oscillation in descending point C to point D. For purposes of discussion, this type of butterflies Gartli, consistent price fluctuations from point A to point D is within the price range determined by the points X and A.
The blue line on the chart represent the typical ratio of Fibonacci price fluctuations within the model of a butterfly. Price fluctuations from point A to point B will typically recover from 0.5 to 0,618 price range, some movement from point X to point A. Price recovery occurs from point B and ending at point C will usually end in the price range between 0.618 and 0.786 from price fluctuations from point A to point B. The closing price movement that occurs from point C to point D typically has a ratio of 1.272 - 1.618 prior to the fluctuations between points B and C. Price fluctuations from point C to point D may also have a Fibonacci ratio of 0.786 to 0.618 to the price movement from point X to point A.
Closing balance, which is usually referred to, is the equality of price movement from point C to point D, and the price movement from point A to point B. I also include the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 for this part of the structure of a butterfly. It should also look for price fluctuations, which occurs from point C and ends at point D, that it was equal to 1.00 - 1.618 of the length variations from point A to point B.
If you have closely followed the only explanations that the model Butterflies Gartli, then you may wonder how the model should strictly follow the Fibonacci ratio. In my opinion, the Fibonacci ratio should be performed, at least for two consecutive price fluctuations. This will help us to mathematically confirm what we see in the chart. Also, the Fibonacci ratio to the last price fluctuations from point C to point D should be more important than other Fibonacci ratios in the model of butterflies Gartli.
In the above graph, we have three blue horizontal lines, which represent the levels of recovery 0.50, 0.618 and 0.786 from the full price fluctuations from point X to point A. Remember that we use the ratio of 0.50 and 0.618 for the movement from point A to point B. Also, we use levels of 0.618 and 0.786 for the variations from point C to point D. Thus, we measure two different price fluctuations. Note that the fluctuation from point A to point B does not come very close to the rehabilitation of 0.50 - 0.618. This differs from the price movement between point C and point D, which fits very closely to the goal of 0,618.
At this schedule, we are restoring the levels of 0.786 and 0.618 of price fluctuations from point A to point B. Please note that we have a price movement that is able to exceed this level and close above 0,786. However, the market is unable to support the crossing of this level, and the next day rose below it.
On to the schedule, we can see the Fibonacci projection at 1.272 and 1.618, which correspond to the price fluctuations from point B to point C. Notice how the price movement almost stops at the level of 1.618.
The latter characteristic of Fibonacci, which we consider as the price movement from point A to point B refers to the price movement from point C to point D. The graph above, we measured the movement from point A to point B, and designed the levels of 1.00 and 1.618 of the value of the point C. Here we can see that the price movement has made a definite shift between these two levels designed.
Final design
The last step, which is desirable to perform in any Fibonacci analysis is comparing the different reconstruction and projections of different price variations in the analyzed structure. This gives confidence in the given analysis. In the above graph, we have three projection for a point D, which we considered above. We have kept the same color scheme as in previous examples, so that could match the red, green and blue lines to the previous schedules. I believe that the importance of the schedule is that the whole group of relations is so close to each other that you can distinguish them only on the notes. This means that all of the Fibonacci ratio, which proektiruyutsyaiz different areas of the structure, suited to the same level where we can expect the formation of point D. Point D is thus the level where we could enter the market with the opening of bull position.
Although the examples that were cited above, refer to the bull's model Butterflies Gartli, the exact opposite is true for option bear model. All that need be done - is turn on the first example of Figure 1 to obtain disservice model shown above.
Butterfly Gartli is another way in which we can use the Fibonacci ratios to measure the visual model.
In subsequent issues of the journal will be considered other types of models Butterflies Gartli ..a
JM Gartli published the book "The profit on the stock exchange in 1935. In this book, he refers to the graphical model, which can be confused with the well-known Elliott Wave. There are similarities, but it is - not the same model. Where in the Elliott Wave uses the numerical designation for the pulse waves and letters to the rehabilitative model Gartli only uses the letter to the central or turning points in the model. This is just one of the differences that can be seen immediately, but there are many others. Therefore, traders who use Elliott waves, may be somewhat confused model Butterflies Gartli. Therefore, it may be useful to take the material presented here, such as it is, rather than to compare two models with each other. There are several varieties of butterflies models, but this article will discuss only one variety.
In the above diagram, we see a common model of butterflies Gartli. At first glance it may look very strange. However, to begin I will explain the model and then show a graphic example. Black lines in the model of butterflies represent the price movement of market instruments. Thus, in Figure 1, we can see that the price movement occurs from point X to point A. Then, we have a downward fluctuation to a point B, which is not beyond the point X. This is accompanied by a movement to point C, which does not exceed the point A. Finally, the butterfly ends of oscillation in descending point C to point D. For purposes of discussion, this type of butterflies Gartli, consistent price fluctuations from point A to point D is within the price range determined by the points X and A.The blue line on the chart represent the typical ratio of Fibonacci price fluctuations within the model of a butterfly. Price fluctuations from point A to point B will typically recover from 0.5 to 0,618 price range, some movement from point X to point A. Price recovery occurs from point B and ending at point C will usually end in the price range between 0.618 and 0.786 from price fluctuations from point A to point B. The closing price movement that occurs from point C to point D typically has a ratio of 1.272 - 1.618 prior to the fluctuations between points B and C. Price fluctuations from point C to point D may also have a Fibonacci ratio of 0.786 to 0.618 to the price movement from point X to point A.
Closing balance, which is usually referred to, is the equality of price movement from point C to point D, and the price movement from point A to point B. I also include the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 for this part of the structure of a butterfly. It should also look for price fluctuations, which occurs from point C and ends at point D, that it was equal to 1.00 - 1.618 of the length variations from point A to point B.
If you have closely followed the only explanations that the model Butterflies Gartli, then you may wonder how the model should strictly follow the Fibonacci ratio. In my opinion, the Fibonacci ratio should be performed, at least for two consecutive price fluctuations. This will help us to mathematically confirm what we see in the chart. Also, the Fibonacci ratio to the last price fluctuations from point C to point D should be more important than other Fibonacci ratios in the model of butterflies Gartli.
In the above graph, we have three blue horizontal lines, which represent the levels of recovery 0.50, 0.618 and 0.786 from the full price fluctuations from point X to point A. Remember that we use the ratio of 0.50 and 0.618 for the movement from point A to point B. Also, we use levels of 0.618 and 0.786 for the variations from point C to point D. Thus, we measure two different price fluctuations. Note that the fluctuation from point A to point B does not come very close to the rehabilitation of 0.50 - 0.618. This differs from the price movement between point C and point D, which fits very closely to the goal of 0,618.
At this schedule, we are restoring the levels of 0.786 and 0.618 of price fluctuations from point A to point B. Please note that we have a price movement that is able to exceed this level and close above 0,786. However, the market is unable to support the crossing of this level, and the next day rose below it.
On to the schedule, we can see the Fibonacci projection at 1.272 and 1.618, which correspond to the price fluctuations from point B to point C. Notice how the price movement almost stops at the level of 1.618.
The latter characteristic of Fibonacci, which we consider as the price movement from point A to point B refers to the price movement from point C to point D. The graph above, we measured the movement from point A to point B, and designed the levels of 1.00 and 1.618 of the value of the point C. Here we can see that the price movement has made a definite shift between these two levels designed.Final design
The last step, which is desirable to perform in any Fibonacci analysis is comparing the different reconstruction and projections of different price variations in the analyzed structure. This gives confidence in the given analysis. In the above graph, we have three projection for a point D, which we considered above. We have kept the same color scheme as in previous examples, so that could match the red, green and blue lines to the previous schedules. I believe that the importance of the schedule is that the whole group of relations is so close to each other that you can distinguish them only on the notes. This means that all of the Fibonacci ratio, which proektiruyutsyaiz different areas of the structure, suited to the same level where we can expect the formation of point D. Point D is thus the level where we could enter the market with the opening of bull position.
Although the examples that were cited above, refer to the bull's model Butterflies Gartli, the exact opposite is true for option bear model. All that need be done - is turn on the first example of Figure 1 to obtain disservice model shown above.Butterfly Gartli is another way in which we can use the Fibonacci ratios to measure the visual model.
In subsequent issues of the journal will be considered other types of models Butterflies Gartli ..a
The bands of linear regression
Introduction
Indicator Strips linear regression arbitrarily smooths the price data is the regression result, if projected regression line, and then randomly creates band standard deviations above and below the regression line. First, data based on the selected price, smoothed, using the period and type of moving average. If you prefer not to use any smoothing, the chosen period 1. Then, the data obtained are used to form a regression line that ends in each bar, using the period of regression. Values in each bar may optionally be predicted value determined by the design of the regression line at X bar forward, where X is the projection period (if X = 0, then no prediction will not happen). Then, above and below the regression line can be held strip of standard deviations, based on a specified number of standard deviations and significance of standard deviation, calculated from data in the range of the period of regression.
In its most basic form, without smoothing (Moving Average of period 1) and without the forecast (the forecast period 0), the indicator provides a simple end point of linear regression line, which ensures the end of each bar with a period of regression. This alone provides a good replacement of the rolling average, and in fact identical to the type of moving average of least squares.
Period smoothing (MA), allows you to pre-smooth the data before performing any regression analysis or prediction. For predictive value of a linear regression line, ending at each point, and designed more for X number of bars, where X is the projection period. This is a designed value is then used as a value indicator for this bar.
The bands that performed, using the standard deviation, which varies in time. Standard deviations are calculated in the same way as an indicator for the "linear regression" (see number 23). The standard deviation factor of the options multiplied by the value of standard deviation to determine how far the band will be conducted from the main line.
Oscillator Linear regression is the number of standard deviations the current price of the line of linear regression. A value of 2 means that the price is currently located at 2 standard deviations above the linear regression (using a given period of regression, ending at the bar). Value - 1.5 means that the price is now at a 1.5 standard deviations below the regression line. This function is added as an additional option "Oscillator linear regression to indicator bands of linear regression. Recommended that the oscillator linear regression was built in a separate window below the price chart. Oscillator Linear regression shows how far the current price deviated from the regression trend line in units of standard deviation, or how far the price deviated from the basic trend established by regression analysis (using the term).
The above graph shows the daily candle "Intel Corporation" (INTC). Prognostic line linear regression (LRF) is depicted in black, the upper band of 2 standard deviations, shown in blue, and the lower band shows a red color.
Formula
Smoothed price = Moving Average (Price, Z), where Z - period moving average
(Note: If smoothing is not required (only the price), the period moving average should be set to 1. In this case, the smoothed price is the same as the price.)
The band regression = regression (smoothed price, X) + Slope * Y, where
Z - period moving average
X - the period of regression
Y - the forecast period (if not necessarily equal to 0)
Slope - slope of the regression line
The upper band = band regression + standard deviation (smoothed price, X) * N, where
N - standard deviation (s)
X - the period of regression
Lower band = band regression - standard deviation (smoothed price, X) * N, where
N - standard deviation (s)
X - the period of regression
Oscillator Linear Regression = (Price - Stripe regression / standard deviation (smoothed price, X), where X - the period of regression
The use of graphics programs
. Price - Price data used in calculating the (opening, closing ...).
. Type MA - type smoothing (moving average), which will be applied to regression (simple, exponential ...).
. Period MA - period smoothing (moving average), which is used to regression.
. The period of regression - number of bars that are used in calculating the regression line.
. The forecast period - the mean regression line may optionally be predictive of the future number of bars specified by user. If the prediction is 0, no prediction will not happen. If the forecast period greater than 0, the linear regression line is projected forward to determine the value of the regression for the bar.
. The band regression - Average strip is determined calculating the regression line, using the current bar and previous X-1 bars (X is a period of regression), and the design of the line next to the bar Y (Y is the forecast period), and then by the end point line as the values.
. The top band - band of the standard deviation, held above the regression line. Uses the number of standard deviations below. The standard deviation is calculated over the period of regression.
. Bottom line - the standard deviation band, held below the regression line. Uses the number of standard deviations below. The standard deviation is calculated over the period of regression.
. Standard Deviation (s) - How many standard deviations from the mean regression lines used for the upper and lower bands.
. Oscillator Linear Regression - Oscillator linear regression represents the number of standard deviations the current price of the line of linear regression.
Practical applications
To better understand the practical application of linear regression ?????, below the existing comments trederov who uses this tool in their daily practice.
Trader Stephen Kessler
I really like the bands of linear regression, because they are superimposed on the graph. I use the value of projection 0 (no prediction), the regression between 100 and MA between 1 (no pre-smoothing) at 1 -, 2 -, 3 - and 5-minute charts S & P, to display the likely levels of support and resistance, along with reference points, the usual recent maximum and minimum levels of recovery and Fibonacci. On the lateral market, as shown above, at 1-minute schedule can be very useful for the band, conducted by 2 standard deviations.
Trader Chad Payne
You can create a convenient indicator, which actually shows you how many standard deviations (from the linear regression line) are the current prices. This indicator will be positive when the price is above the regression line and negative when prices are lower. In the following chart shows the parameters set by the indicator and an example of this indicator, which was built in the form of the histogram below the price chart.
The indicator is installed without smoothing (the period of AI = 1), no forecast (the forecast period = 0), and the period of regression = 13.
Significance of -2.3 tells you that prices are currently at 2.3 standard deviations below the regression line (which begins 13 bars ago, and ends at this bar).
Here is an another example of use of the linear regression.
This is a daily schedule of MSFT. For the indicator is used between 13 and 1.5 standard deviations. I also added to the schedule indicator "Paint Bar". Parameters used for the indicator "Paint Bar" shown there. LRFU and LRFL - is respectively the upper and lower bands of linear regression.
As you can see the bars are displayed in black when they closed above the upper band, and blue, when they closed below the lower band.
Indicator Strips linear regression arbitrarily smooths the price data is the regression result, if projected regression line, and then randomly creates band standard deviations above and below the regression line. First, data based on the selected price, smoothed, using the period and type of moving average. If you prefer not to use any smoothing, the chosen period 1. Then, the data obtained are used to form a regression line that ends in each bar, using the period of regression. Values in each bar may optionally be predicted value determined by the design of the regression line at X bar forward, where X is the projection period (if X = 0, then no prediction will not happen). Then, above and below the regression line can be held strip of standard deviations, based on a specified number of standard deviations and significance of standard deviation, calculated from data in the range of the period of regression.
In its most basic form, without smoothing (Moving Average of period 1) and without the forecast (the forecast period 0), the indicator provides a simple end point of linear regression line, which ensures the end of each bar with a period of regression. This alone provides a good replacement of the rolling average, and in fact identical to the type of moving average of least squares.
Period smoothing (MA), allows you to pre-smooth the data before performing any regression analysis or prediction. For predictive value of a linear regression line, ending at each point, and designed more for X number of bars, where X is the projection period. This is a designed value is then used as a value indicator for this bar.
The bands that performed, using the standard deviation, which varies in time. Standard deviations are calculated in the same way as an indicator for the "linear regression" (see number 23). The standard deviation factor of the options multiplied by the value of standard deviation to determine how far the band will be conducted from the main line.
Oscillator Linear regression is the number of standard deviations the current price of the line of linear regression. A value of 2 means that the price is currently located at 2 standard deviations above the linear regression (using a given period of regression, ending at the bar). Value - 1.5 means that the price is now at a 1.5 standard deviations below the regression line. This function is added as an additional option "Oscillator linear regression to indicator bands of linear regression. Recommended that the oscillator linear regression was built in a separate window below the price chart. Oscillator Linear regression shows how far the current price deviated from the regression trend line in units of standard deviation, or how far the price deviated from the basic trend established by regression analysis (using the term).
The above graph shows the daily candle "Intel Corporation" (INTC). Prognostic line linear regression (LRF) is depicted in black, the upper band of 2 standard deviations, shown in blue, and the lower band shows a red color.Formula
Smoothed price = Moving Average (Price, Z), where Z - period moving average
(Note: If smoothing is not required (only the price), the period moving average should be set to 1. In this case, the smoothed price is the same as the price.)
The band regression = regression (smoothed price, X) + Slope * Y, where
Z - period moving average
X - the period of regression
Y - the forecast period (if not necessarily equal to 0)
Slope - slope of the regression line
The upper band = band regression + standard deviation (smoothed price, X) * N, where
N - standard deviation (s)
X - the period of regression
Lower band = band regression - standard deviation (smoothed price, X) * N, where
N - standard deviation (s)
X - the period of regression
Oscillator Linear Regression = (Price - Stripe regression / standard deviation (smoothed price, X), where X - the period of regression
The use of graphics programs
. Price - Price data used in calculating the (opening, closing ...).
. Type MA - type smoothing (moving average), which will be applied to regression (simple, exponential ...).
. Period MA - period smoothing (moving average), which is used to regression.
. The period of regression - number of bars that are used in calculating the regression line.
. The forecast period - the mean regression line may optionally be predictive of the future number of bars specified by user. If the prediction is 0, no prediction will not happen. If the forecast period greater than 0, the linear regression line is projected forward to determine the value of the regression for the bar.
. The band regression - Average strip is determined calculating the regression line, using the current bar and previous X-1 bars (X is a period of regression), and the design of the line next to the bar Y (Y is the forecast period), and then by the end point line as the values.
. The top band - band of the standard deviation, held above the regression line. Uses the number of standard deviations below. The standard deviation is calculated over the period of regression.
. Bottom line - the standard deviation band, held below the regression line. Uses the number of standard deviations below. The standard deviation is calculated over the period of regression.
. Standard Deviation (s) - How many standard deviations from the mean regression lines used for the upper and lower bands.
. Oscillator Linear Regression - Oscillator linear regression represents the number of standard deviations the current price of the line of linear regression.
Practical applications
To better understand the practical application of linear regression ?????, below the existing comments trederov who uses this tool in their daily practice.
Trader Stephen Kessler
I really like the bands of linear regression, because they are superimposed on the graph. I use the value of projection 0 (no prediction), the regression between 100 and MA between 1 (no pre-smoothing) at 1 -, 2 -, 3 - and 5-minute charts S & P, to display the likely levels of support and resistance, along with reference points, the usual recent maximum and minimum levels of recovery and Fibonacci. On the lateral market, as shown above, at 1-minute schedule can be very useful for the band, conducted by 2 standard deviations.Trader Chad Payne
You can create a convenient indicator, which actually shows you how many standard deviations (from the linear regression line) are the current prices. This indicator will be positive when the price is above the regression line and negative when prices are lower. In the following chart shows the parameters set by the indicator and an example of this indicator, which was built in the form of the histogram below the price chart.
The indicator is installed without smoothing (the period of AI = 1), no forecast (the forecast period = 0), and the period of regression = 13.
Significance of -2.3 tells you that prices are currently at 2.3 standard deviations below the regression line (which begins 13 bars ago, and ends at this bar).Here is an another example of use of the linear regression.
This is a daily schedule of MSFT. For the indicator is used between 13 and 1.5 standard deviations. I also added to the schedule indicator "Paint Bar". Parameters used for the indicator "Paint Bar" shown there. LRFU and LRFL - is respectively the upper and lower bands of linear regression.As you can see the bars are displayed in black when they closed above the upper band, and blue, when they closed below the lower band.
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